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Kamala Harris' lead in blue state halved by Donald Trump: poll (www.newsweek.com)

submitted 2 months ago by realcaseyrollins@thelemmy.club to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] LovingHippieCat@lemmy.world 48 points 2 months ago

TL;DR: A poll in Minnesota of 635 likely voters showed her lead after the DNC went from 10 to 5 percent. And it also has a margin of error of +-4.5 percent. So in other words, this is a tiny ass poll with a margin of error almost the exact same size as the supposed lead being halved. I'm not saying it's not possible, but with such a small poll, I don't know how accurate this.

[-] aalvare2@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago

If I understand margin of error correctly, then what this means is that the “true” lead that harris had over trump at the time of this poll has a 95% chance of being somewhere between +(5+4.5) and +(5-4.5).

So according to just this poll, there’s a 95% that Harris’ lead in Minnesota is between 9.5% and 0.5%, so somewhere between “what the polling was nearly already saying” and “almost neck and neck”.

And that’s not even taking any of the other polling into consideration…

TL;DR yeah, this poll isn’t very useful.

[-] ABCDE@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

635 is not that small. Regular polling should show us a good idea of how play stands.

[-] LovingHippieCat@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

Considering there are polls that have 2000 or more people and those are generally considered more reliable, 635 is pretty small. It might not be small in a gym, but it's smaller than my graduating high school class. So it's less reliable as such.

[-] Buffalox@lemmy.world 11 points 2 months ago

I guess we just have to admit that Trump has led a way better campaign this past month.
/s

[-] CaliforniaSober@lemmy.ca 15 points 2 months ago

Clearly the polls show that pissing on Arlington is a winning strategy…

Trump should keep insulting veterans… considering the polls.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

Minnesota has been on the edge since Biden was in the race, I kept pointing this out to cries of "nuh unh" but the numbers there are VERY squishy.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Biden by 2, Trump by 3, ties... it's been ugly there.

[-] medgremlin@midwest.social 0 points 2 months ago

What in the hell are you talking about? Kamala's lead is variable, but substantial.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 0 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Shrinking, which means Trump has the momentum.

She got a bump when she tapped in for Biden, but that bump is now fading.

this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2024

-66 points (11.6% liked)

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