-16

Trump leading Biden in all 7 major swing states: Polling (thehill.com)

submitted 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) by Riccosuave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

18 comments fedilink hide all child comments

top 18 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 26 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Polls are bullshit anyway, for a couple different reasons
Biden is 3 POINTS UP nationally in a recent NYT poll which is why the doomsayers all of a sudden switched to caring about swing states just now
Polls are bullshit anyway. He could be 15 points down for all we know, in the actual if-election-was-held-today counting. Nate Silver who had a pretty credible claim to cutting through all the math and bad methodology into a decent look at what’s going on gives Biden a 25% chance to win
Nobody knows the future to be honest. Biden could fuck up worse than the debate at any time or anything could happen. There could be a mini civil war on Election Day as the Republicans try to cancel the results and people start fighting for real for what’s going to get written down as the outcome.
FUCKING VOTE, register, sign up to do text banking. Volunteer to be a poll worker. Join up with a good little grouping; it might help the country and they tend to be good people and depending on how it goes after, it might save your life, too.

John Connor said it. The future is not set. Until it happens, then it is. But that shit hasn’t happened yet.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 19 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

National polls are meaningless because we don't have national elections.

If Trump is up in all 7 swing states, it doesn't matter what 4 out of the 10 polled who happen to be in California or New York think.

This is why the state by state polls are important .

The "given" states, we already know.

Washington, Oregon, California, etc. are all going to Biden, full stop.

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc. are all going to Trump, full stop.

So knowing that, you poll the states that are in flux.

Arizona - Trump +4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +3 to +6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - Biden +1 (pre assassination att.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia - Trump +3 to +6 (+10 vs Harris)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +3 (+1 +2 vs Harris)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Toss up, Trump +3 to Biden +1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Trump +2 (+1 vs Harris)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Toss up - Trump +1 to Biden +2 (pre assassination att.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So you take that knowledge and plot it on the electoral college map:

I've been following these state by state polls all year and this is the strongest showing for Trump yet.

It went from Biden, to toss up, to Trump, to strong Trump, to this.

Currently Biden does not have a path to win. Biden CANNOT lose PA, MI, WI. He HAS to have all three to be viable.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev -2 points 4 months ago

Well that’s an interesting comment

I mean, yes, it’s true as far as it goes, and I would have thought that my point #3 would have sorta encompassed that idea and given a hint that I am aware on some level that it’s more complex than “whose line is higher in the most recent national poll = who’s going to win”.

I have more I could say on it including what other recent swing state polls besides this one are saying, and underlying problems with the methodology including e.g. the absolute insanity of reporting polls of all registered voters as if likelihood to vote was not correlated with political affiliation when we already know that it is… but mostly I was just pointing out here, (a) keep in mind what the sudden shift of narrative here is implying about the bias of the poster (b) no fate, please vote.

But now I have a more interesting question. If I look back in your history, will I find indications that you thought national level polls were important when Biden was behind, and now all of a sudden don’t care about them when Biden is ahead? ‘Cause that would be a super interesting (and to me unexpected) finding.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 5 points 4 months ago

I have been warning against national polls for years now, even pre-Lemmy. There are OTHER problems with polling, don't even get me started on "likely" voters.

But following these polls over time allows you to establish a trend line and right now, it's trending Trump.

That will change coming out of the Democratic convention, but then the question becomes "is it enough?" 🤷‍♂️ Guess we'll find out!

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 2 points 4 months ago

Yeah, polls are crap but relative polling is like their one useful application. On that we agree

[-] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -1 points 4 months ago

National polls are about as meaningless as our appendix. If the US conducted national elections via popular vote then they might actually mean something, but we don't. Because of the electoral college, national polls mean nothing. And in all of the swing state polls, where polling matters, Biden is losing.

[-] Riccosuave@lemmy.world -3 points 4 months ago

Nate Silver who had a pretty credible claim to cutting through all the math and bad methodology into a decent look at what’s going on gives Biden a 25% chance to win.

So even you admit using your own methodology that this election is going to be like shooting fish in a barrel for Trump. Got it 👍

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 1 points 4 months ago

It’s interesting to me that you’re not upset about that prediction. You sound happy about it.

[-] Riccosuave@lemmy.world -2 points 4 months ago

No matter how much you try to smuggle that intent onto my statements it won't make it true. You're neither a mind reader, nor a particularly effective advocate for your own arguments. Go take your piss poor use of unpersuasive rhetoric somewhere else.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 1 points 4 months ago

What’s your feeling about Biden’s national polling?

[-] Riccosuave@lemmy.world 0 points 4 months ago

As @jordanlund already said, national polling is meaningless because the popular vote does not determine the outcome of the election. I have not ever cared about national polling beyond the tertiary value of perhaps better understanding the aggregate sentiments of the country.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 2 points 4 months ago

Idk dude. A week ago you were insisting that swing state polling wasn’t what was important, it was something else that let you paint a gloomy narrative.

I mean, your central point that things look grim, I agree with somewhat. It just sounds like you’re putting more energy into arguing for it, using whatever is to hand, than into trying to fix it.

[-] Riccosuave@lemmy.world 0 points 4 months ago

Pretty weird thing to insinuate yourself since what I actually said was THE EXACT FUCKING OPPOSITE 😂

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 0 points 4 months ago

I think this conversation has run its course and I wish you a pleasant evening

[-] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 4 points 4 months ago

The new survey from The Times/SAY24 found Biden trailing Trump in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The closest races, according to the polls, were in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It's weird going red once in decades makes states a "battleground"...

An average Dem would be a lock in some of those states. But the last three elections we keep running candidates no one wants

It's like the party so how popular Obama was and decided to just do the opposite of everything people liked about him

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 4 points 4 months ago

Yeah Obama did ACA and basically other than that just wasn’t a POS (domestically) and that was enough for people to love him because the usual standard is pure corporate dogshit

And so Biden did reduced income inequality, union support, huge action on climate change, corporate tax increases, hundreds of billions of dollars on student loan forgiveness, and then told the media “hey I need you to tell them I caused inflation and I hate working people and I’m old and stupid and smell bad and there’s nothing good about me even if the other guy is not just corporate and corrupt but literally wants to destroy the country”

So yeah it really is kind of Biden’s fault at the end of the day, I do see what you mean

[-] PP_BOY_@lemmy.world 0 points 4 months ago

It’s like the party so how popular Obama was and decided to just do the opposite of everything people liked about him

And then fucking ran with the shit that people hated about Obama (his second term, specifically)

[-] morphballganon@lemmy.world 4 points 4 months ago

It's July.

Crooks likely inspired someone.

We haven't seen the last of the violence yet.

this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024

-16 points (35.7% liked)

politics

19096 readers

1159 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News