I mean, yes, it’s true as far as it goes, and I would have thought that my point #3 would have sorta encompassed that idea and given a hint that I am aware on some level that it’s more complex than “whose line is higher in the most recent national poll = who’s going to win”.

I have more I could say on it including what other recent swing state polls besides this one are saying, and underlying problems with the methodology including e.g. the absolute insanity of reporting polls of all registered voters as if likelihood to vote was not correlated with political affiliation when we already know that it is… but mostly I was just pointing out here, (a) keep in mind what the sudden shift of narrative here is implying about the bias of the poster (b) no fate, please vote.

But now I have a more interesting question. If I look back in your history, will I find indications that you thought national level polls were important when Biden was behind, and now all of a sudden don’t care about them when Biden is ahead? ‘Cause that would be a super interesting (and to me unexpected) finding.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 5 points 4 months ago

I have been warning against national polls for years now, even pre-Lemmy. There are OTHER problems with polling, don't even get me started on "likely" voters.

But following these polls over time allows you to establish a trend line and right now, it's trending Trump.

That will change coming out of the Democratic convention, but then the question becomes "is it enough?" 🤷‍♂️ Guess we'll find out!

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 2 points 4 months ago

Yeah, polls are crap but relative polling is like their one useful application. On that we agree

this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024

-16 points (35.7% liked)

politics

19096 readers

1159 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News