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this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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The single most accurate predictor of a country's future is their demographic structure, and China's is one of the worst, not just in the world, but in history. It's pretty normal for nations to go into cycle of prosperity and despair where they expand and shrink, however, what China is going through is unique. China's population is predicted to shrink down from 1.4 billion people to just 587 million by 2100. That is insane. It's scale, speed, intensity is something we've never seen before. China's demographic collapse is going to be worse than Europe during the black plague or China during the Great Chinese Famine or Germany after WWII. China is about to go into uncharted territory. We don't know what things will be like on the other side because we've never seen it before and we have no model or system to deal with it. One thing is for certain though, China as we know it today under the CCP is going to go away.
As for the US, if it were to continue on it's current demographic trends, it'll reach China's current demographic situation at some point in the second half of this century, that's a lot of time to figure things out. At that point, other countries such as Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Spain, as well as China would have been decades into their demographic collapses. That's a lot valuable time to learn from what these countries went through and proceed with more knowledge captiously based on what minimized the damage and what didn't.