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this post was submitted on 01 Jun 2024
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Georgia and Moldova are easy non-NATO pickings. I would be very worried if I were them.
Georgia yes but Moldova uhh definitely not, unless you're referring to Transnistria specifically, and even that is in a tenuous position.
Why not Moldova? Russia has been undermining them for years.
Yes, but Moldova is having none of it. They are firmly EU-aligned and will not go over to Russia willingly. That means they are essentially untouchable barring Russia taking all of Ukraine or launching an absurdly large-scale military operation into the black sea and through Odesa. Considering their Black Sea fleet was already crippled by a country with no navy, that seems unlikely. I also doubt Romania would look the other way.
I would assume they'd use Transnistria as a proxy. The attempted coup in 2023 is a huge indication that Russia is still very interested in Moldova and will further thier hybrid efforts after they've settled when they take Ukraine. Georgia is most likely going to be a vassal state under the Georgia Dream.
Moldova doesn't have strategic value, Georgia on the other hand is a choke point for anyone trying to invade Russia through the Caucasus. And Russia will do everything in its power to control it. It really is a matter of national security.