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this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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Oh shit, is it going down? Is Russia going to try to invade the rest of Moldova, and simultaneously try to open a southern front in Ukraine? Because that would be an excellent way to get a bunch of NATO countries to stop fucking around and actually directly intervene both there and in Ukraine.
Without looking at a map my memory is kinda fuzzy but I believe Russian troops would have trouble getting there. I hope they try the Black Sea route
I doubt it. The Russian navy can barely leave port without sinking (shit, sometimes they get wrecked even in port) and airlifting enough material and personnel to stage a new invasion front would be costly and runs the risk of Ukrainian air defense shredding them.
As I see it, using Transnistria as a western "front" by the Z army to encircle Kiev, will definitely risk more border incidents. This is without even considering Moldova's EU candidate status, and Moldova's ambiguous relationship with that " breakaway " region.