It’s not like any candidate was actually good but they did pick the worst one.
this post was submitted on 16 Jan 2024
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Zero chance he is in prison by election day.
A man's gotta have a dream
At this point the only things between Trump and a jail cell are:
The courts must rule in the coming days (probably this month, Jan 2024) that Presidents are subject to criminal prosecution. We know Presidents are not subject to civil prosecution, but the courts are deciding about criminal prosecution now. (Trump argues it would be "bedlam" if Presidents were subject to the law).
A jury decision in mid 2024. If that jury says "guilty", it's over, Trump is a convicted felon.
Do you honestly believe there won't be any stalling or controversy between now and mid-year that won't delay it any further?
Trump may or may not eventually end up in prison, but it's naïve after the past 8 years to assume that there are only two ways this could all shake out, and that you can predict them.
A possibility that will almost certainly be less absurd than whatever actually happens:
Trump wins a second term, manages to get the FedSoc 6 to rule that a sitting president can't be imprisoned because it would violate separation of powers. So multiple states are just waiting for his term to end so they can actually arrest him. (Feds can't arrest him because he has pardoned himself for all past, present, and future crimes)
Then in the last month of his presidency he takes a diplomatic trip to Russia and just never comes back.
I don't mean there are 2 ways this can shake out. I mean there are 2 legal barriers in the way. Once the courts rule that Trump can be prosecuted, then the trial date is set for spring. The judge is motivated to hold to that trial date. The prosecutors have their evidence and arguments ready for the jury.
On the possibility of Trump pardoning himself, it's not clear that a President can pardon himself and the supreme court would probably end up having to rule on that.
If Trump is a convicted felon, then he probably can't get enough votes to win, but I don't know, the cult is strong with this one.