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this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2023
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Nearly half the state population is in NYC alone. Expand that out to the nyc metropolitan area within New York, and you’re getting close to 3/4 of the state population.
It’s quite reasonable to assume that the vast majority of the folks that left New York were leaving NYC.
I think what they're saying is that if people wanted to leave NYC, they could stay in State and have more room.
Then again there's people who effectively live in NYC without even living in the state.
I’m sure some did, but there’s no reason to think a leaver of NYC is vastly more likely to move upstate. I’m sure most would move to another city, for one thing, because most people live in cities in general, and all the more if you once lived in NYC.
Yeah, but New York State is not going to be a viable option for a lot of people. Bigotry in small town New York is real to the point that sundown towns are a thing, and even when they’re not, it’s a lot easier to find a confederate flag bumper sticker than an antifa one, especially if you’re out of Hudson valley.
Oh, no there's absolutely no reason to assume that. Making assumptions based on a Fox News graph is a really bad idea.
They did lose 0.5% but they've lost less this year than they did last year.
Let's say people were leaving due to liberal policy change They would almost certainly just be from the rural areas. It could be changes in the city, zoning, rent, in which case it would be almost solely from the people in the city.
In any case we really need more data, You can't just assume because more people live over there that the people are leaving equally
Between 2020 and 2022, NYC has lost 5% of its population. That’s approximately 450,000 people (or about 2% of the state’s population) in two years, according to the comptroller report referenced in the article.
In addition to the very simple assumption that the majority of people leaving are from the majority population center (NYC and its metro area), the recent history of people leaving NYC, it is in fact perfectly reasonable to assume it is people from NYC or the NYC metro area leaving.
You know why it’s reasonable to assume? Because all the data we have is about aggregate numbers for the time period, and numbers for NYC for the two year timeframe prior. We don’t know why the people left. Which, by the way, is unreasonable to assume that it’s for political reasons when we have pretty good nationwide data showing us that the rise in remote work has led to an increase in people leaving densely populated areas to go life somewhere cheaper.
So, you see, using data that we have, we can make reasonable assumptions rather than jump to the notion that the moves are political in nature, which is what Fox News wants you to assume.
As an aside, according to the article, the gross number of people leaving the state was about 37k people higher this year than last. Inflow may have been different but I can’t find any readily available data for the year prior. But more people did leave the state this year than last, but that pales in comparison to the change between 2020 and 2022.