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Inside the 'arms race' between YouTube and ad blockers
(www.engadget.com)
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I think this will only end up with YouTube winning. Google has been caution for years, but they can bring the big guns if they see there are no more options. Google is clearly desperate to bring those numbers up and they don't care if user experience suffers.
First, they can decide to deploy a restrictive CSP that prevents external scripts from running in the page. This would break lots of extension that work on YouTube.
And then they can just enforce DRM like Netflix. This will be horrible for users, cost them more to serve, and potentially break Youtube for older clients. But then ads will be impossible to skip, and downloading videos will because almost impossible.
But if they decide the numbers are worth it, they will do it. But honestly at this point I really don't care. Will I miss YouTube? Sure. But I rather watch less content on nebula than support this horrible user experience.
Well, I'm not that pessimist, at least not on those 2 points. I hardly see how CSP would prevent addon to do their stuff, as CSP is protection against cross site attacks, and extension aren't sites (thought I actually remember having an issue like that once making an extension, but correcting the extensio's permissions solved it).
And DRMs only apply on the video stream. It won't protect the webpage or the javascript. Plus there are content on youtube that they are contractually required to not put behind DRMs.
What I'm worried youtube will do is simply that their server will refuse to send the video until a certain time after the user load the page, thid time corresponding to a bit less than the time the user would wait by playing ads.
It won't force the user to watch ads. But it'll deincensitive it by a certain amount.