this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2023
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They wont. But if they did, it would be an interesting political move. It would demonstrate unambiguously that:
they have nukes (everybody sorta knows, but its never been confirmed)
they are willing to use them in anger against their enemies (only the second country to use them against enemies)
they are willing to engage in a first strike (many countries are comitted to not being the first to send the spicy boi)
they are willing to use them against a non-existential threat (many countries intend only to use them only when faced with, or after experiencing annihilation)
they are willing to use them on their own doorstep, to the peril of hostages, enemy civilians, and their own citizens/fisheries/farmland in the region
This would be such a radical nuclear doctrine that it would genuinely give all arab countries, and Iran, pause to consider their own safety.
If Israel used nukes on Gaza it would mean that the gloves are off and there's nothing stopping Russia from deploying nuclear munitions in Ukraine or other nuclear backed states to use it in conflict areas.
A change in nuclear doctrine of one state doesn't necessarily mean another will change their doctrine too. For example, Russia and India have a No-first-use policy, but the US and Pakistan do not; they reserve the right, in their doctrine, to use nukes whenever they see fit.
Russia's doctrine didnt change reactively when the US switched from 'massive retalliation' doctrine to 'flexible response'. In 'flexible response' doctrine, a bit of light nuking is potentially acceptable - not surprising from the only country who has had tangible success from doling out a nuclear spanking.
The UK has a doctrine of first strike ambiguity, meaning that their adversary wont know whether or not the UK are willing to strike first until it starts raining MIRVs - or not.
Just to make sure I understand your argument, you think Israel is going to nuke Gaza? In that case, I have a very lucrative bridge to sell you.
The first two words of my comment are "They wont"