this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2026
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xJeaAKTKxbHL6F9a/a-new-kind-of-prediction-market-for-science
Got a problem of randos shitting AI-generated ARXIV preprints into existence faster than the scientific community can deal with it? SHOEHORN IN PREDICTION MARKETS!
(Incidentally, my boss has been complaining about the onslaught of low quality preprints that are shat out with the usual low-quality signifiers that let you filter things being harder to immediately see, and his conclusion is that he is sad to say science is going back towards and has to go back towards systems of reputation and patronage where you have to look at who lent their reputation to a work and who newcomers are being vouched for by to determine if it is worth looking at it at all.)
(And I am again reminded of our electronic information sphere becoming like the Earth's genetic information sphere in that it is full of selfish parasites looking to hijack you to use their nonproductive information, with productive cellular life jealously guarding its genomic nucleic acids and not letting it interact with the froth of selfish viral and mobile elements bouncing off it at all times.)