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i think its not that way
due to probably it getting more decentralized so because a server may not handle 20k users correct those 20k will split and migrate to other servers
We've already seen some cases of instances get defederated because they hostrd several spam accounts and they didn't have any safeguards to prevent spammers from creating a new account when a current one got banned.
Look at email. Effectively, a few major instances run email and dictate rules on interfacing with those accounts as a way of controlling spam. If you don't follow their rules, your entire server gets blacklisted. I don't see how any federated system won't end up there.
Even if that's true it's still better than centralized social media. Email is pretty cool. Also you could still start a new "ring" of instances outside of the big ones, since it's still open source and self hostable, some of the big instances might even accept you and federate. And then you just have multiple accounts, 3rd party apps manage that well.