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AOC suddenly leapfrogs to the front of 2028 presidential race on prediction market
(www.the-independent.com)
this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2026
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If AOC against odds actually came into office in '29, and at best dems win a simple majority in Congress because the electoral map deck is so stacked, they still have to contend with a 6-3 conservative supreme court plus thousands of conservative justices in the system, a gigantic fully funded immigration terror apparatus, completely stripped to the bone non-functional institutions, and countless EOs and bills to overturn or replace.
In the most rosy scenario a progressive wing works with the moderates to rollback or fix, what... 25% of all of this?
The ratchet effect is an easy go to and I almost referred to it myself, but its a very non materialist framing. I think a better explainer is how the contradictions of liberalism cannot hold and eventually come undone.
"The executive of the modern state is but a committee for managing the common affairs of the whole bourgeoisie."
The materialist understanding of this is that both the democratic and republican party are the same class and simply use this strategy for optics and manufacturing consent.
A ratchet cannot move the other direction, so I do not believe that this implies that the parties are active players in politics and that the democrats could move left even if they wanted to.
If only we had any historical examples of what happens after a reformist social democratic movement attempts to resolve the contradictions and is stopped by reactionary forces
My best case scenario is 8%. During the first half of AOC's term she and the dems do a half-assed ~5%. By design a lot of what they do requires something unrealistic: a dem house and senate for 4 years for them to finish the job. But the norm is that the president's party does poorly in midterms. But we'll assume the dems are strong for four years. They do 10% but GOP SCOTUS throws a lot of sand in the gears so only 8% can be accomplished.
A more realistic situation 5+%. During AOC's entire term - GOP SCOTUS does it sand in the gears gag. The dems lose the house or the senate (both?) in the midterms. They do 3% more in AOC's last two years. The math is 8% minus GOP SCOTUS' sand.
In either case the immigration terror apparatus maybe gets a 10% cut in funding from $250B to $225B. And the dems and AOC didn't pack the court. A GOP president in 2032 has those tools right at hand the day after their inauguration.
they won’t fix anything, they will just say they fixed 8%