this post was submitted on 13 Aug 2026
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Kalshi odds are saying most people think Elon's hoping for the answer to be "children."
Who cares what a shitty gambling site "says"?
You seem to have missed the joke.
You screwed your joke by unnecessarily attaching it to a brand and making it look like an ad.
Or it was a simple layered joke making fun of both Elon's pedophilia and that things that fucked up are actually allowed on those shit gambling sites.
settle down yall
Well, it's the aggregated opinion of people who use the site. Kalshi doesn't set the price; people making the bets set the price based on the odds others are willing to accept.
There's a sampling bias for sure, but since the odds given for this bet are based on how much people are willing to pay for that bet, this gives a very good approximation for how people actually feel about something.
It actually ends up being more reliable than most opinion polls in that way.
Besides the fact they nobody knows what is being done behind the scenes to ensure results are (or aren't) fair, using a sample of individuals that are all attempting to play the system against each other deeply and irreparably biases the data.
On top of that, jokes like the one I responded to and comments like yours only serve to legitimize a "service" thats sole purpose is to squeeze every penny from its users. It doesn't provide anything beneficial to anyone but its owners.
If the contract isn't something that meets the criteria for an efficient market, then yeah, it's not something that can be used to give reasonable probabilities.
But for something like, winner of the democratic presidential primary, or the proce of gold in a month... the it's genuinely a better predictive model than what a statistician would be able to come up with.
For statistics purposes, it gives me something incredibly beneficial. Simply by knowing the price of a contract, I can know with decent accuracy how likely something is to happen.
If you're not in the field, you wouldn't necessarily appreciate how valuable that is.
"gambling"