this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2026
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I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. (beatthecouch.com)
submitted 1 month ago by noir_chat@lemmy.world to c/games@lemmy.world
61 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] Katana314@lemmy.world 23 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

there's opportunity in trading. but to assume you'll get the benefit is very similar to assuming you'll beat the casino. it's possible, but unlikely, especially in the long term.

[–] terranoid@lemmy.cafe -1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

ironic that you say you'll lose in the long term, given that investing long term in an index fund is one of the safest ways to invest.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 21 points 1 month ago (1 children)

yeah, that's the whole point of the game. "trading" is the one that will not work in the long term. staying in the index fund is the good option.

[–] pineapplelover@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Well you can game volatile stocks and you can buy and sell whenever you feel like it. Stuff like Tesla you know they're gonna swing down or swing up because shit's just so manipulated

[–] Cethin@lemmy.zip 4 points 1 month ago

The issue is everyone else thinks they can game it too, so price predictions are built into the cost, meaning you'll probably lose. There will be others who can trade faster and have more information who will beat you 99.99% of the time.

[–] MajinBlayze@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

The loss on this case is "relative to an index fund"