this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2026
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] GreenKnight23@lemmy.world 35 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

first and best use of this meme. i should think of some easter eggs related to this... congrats and hope you liked it (was a nice couch)

[–] GreenKnight23@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago (1 children)

1000004365

it was an excellent couch. before I wrecked it!

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago

not the same couch, cousins actually...

[–] Katana314@lemmy.world 23 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago (5 children)

there's opportunity in trading. but to assume you'll get the benefit is very similar to assuming you'll beat the casino. it's possible, but unlikely, especially in the long term.

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[–] ikidd@lemmy.dbzer0.com 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The couch can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.

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[–] rf_@lemmy.world 10 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Small request, can you add the couch’s win pct next to the number of games it has won? I’m lazy

Thanks!

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

done, refresh a few times to see it

[–] rf_@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

no problem, good idea, never got around to it

[–] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I won. Does that mean I should start betting on stocks? Ok.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

well, go easy i guess...

[–] Solemarc@lemmy.world 7 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I beat 9/10 monkeys! Damn I'm good, I should do this for real!

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

nice, congrats! and maybe you should (not)

[–] zlatko@programming.dev 7 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Spamming the trade buttons seems to be a good strategy

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

i just lost 3 out of 4 like that but certainly a strategy

[–] CannedYeet@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

Until OP implements short term cost basis

[–] Wispy2891@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Wtf it's harder than I imagined

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

yess, kind of the message hope you liked it!

[–] BlackLaZoR@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

S&P historically grew at like 7% per year on averange. You're at constant disadvantage against couch

[–] reddit_sux@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

U r sure it's not "be at the couch"

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago
[–] mEEGal@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Fucking brilliant ! 👏👏

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

glad you liked it mate! you won or what?

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[–] Fandangalo@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

I played maybe 15 games. I won one in 99th percentile and lost one in like 40th.

You main visual is the market line, but I would make the main visual the competing lines of you vs couch, whether that’s bars or also graphed on the market. Otherwise, you’re sort of burying the mental image you want people to take away.

There’s also times where the market went completely south, so I did nothing, and got the “enlightened” position.

It’s a neat micro-game, but it comes off as preachy. Maybe that’s your intent, but being preachy can really turn people off. That maybe not your intent.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

the two lines are certainly harder/confusing to follow, i preferred the absolute numbers at the top. the preachy thing is certainly a choice, i do want to make a point with this. the whole thing is based on that tone of voice. i hear you, it'll turn some people off and i think i'm ok with it. appreciate the honest feedback.

[–] architect@thelemmy.club 1 points 1 month ago

Art should be like that, anyways. It’s a good micro game.

[–] criss_cross@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

These are always good counter arguments to technical analysis. But I’d love to see something where you get industry news surrounding the stocks and have to see if you can also trade based on the news and noise or if the couch wins there.

[–] Obi@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 month ago

In these older years maybe that would change something but in the modern era the market is totally irrational and doesn't react to news with any kind of sense.

[–] BlackLaZoR@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago

Interesting game. You could add crypto currencies for fun factor. Beating the couch in bitcoin trading could be an interesting challange

[–] olafurp@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I would like a slider mode. It's very hard to do any sensible strategy with an all or nothing approach. If market goes up by 30% I want to progressively sell and vice versa

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

it's over two years so while not long term, it's not short either. lots of ups and downs. but i'm thinking of adding a career mode with 2x10 years, start with 10k, see where you end up kind of thing.

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[–] cinoreus@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

Nifty fifty? Are you an Indian?

[–] architect@thelemmy.club 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago
[–] SkunkWorkz@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Maybe add a volume chart to measure market activity, a candle stick chart to see the intra day OHLC and a moving average line chart. Just to see if people fare better compared to just an end of day line chart.

[–] Dyskolos@lemmy.zip 1 points 1 month ago (3 children)

As far as I can tell it only used stock that "won". In that scenario, beating the couch is hard luck. But stock that ends up on 0, you could win more easily.

In real life I live off of that, so a couch won't always win 😋

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

it uses S&P500 which isn't necessarily winning stocks. although it wins over the long term, lots of losing years are included here.

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