noir_chat

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[OC] People tried to beat the stock market 100K+ times in a simulation. They lost, a lot. (lemmy.world)
 

Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it's basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it's not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here's the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game's own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

yeah, sometimes i think i know the cycle and still get it wrong. too similar and not too similar at the same time. glad you liked it mate

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

glad you liked it mate! you won or what?

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

beatthecorpse just didn't have the same vibe to it

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/internetisbeautiful@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

love it. now repeat it : ) thanks mate, apprciated

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

it uses S&P500 which isn't necessarily winning stocks. although it wins over the long term, lots of losing years are included here.

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

it's over two years so while not long term, it's not short either. lots of ups and downs. but i'm thinking of adding a career mode with 2x10 years, start with 10k, see where you end up kind of thing.

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/games@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

yess, kind of the message hope you liked it!

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. in c/internetisbeautiful@lemmy.world
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago

you won, congrats. and thanks mate, appreciate it

194
I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. (beatthecouch.com)
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

50
I built a free game that teaches why timing the market usually fails: you vs a couch that just holds the S&P 500. 84,000 plays in, the couch has won 63%. (beatthecouch.com)
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

165
I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. (beatthecouch.com)
 

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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