Let me preface this by saying that I'm a longtime GTA fan, and so, to some extent, I don't blame people for being excited for the newest game in that franchise.
GTA 3 on the PS2 was a revolutionary game that changed the medium forever. Vice City and San Andreas built upon that same template and engine making games that were bigger in better in just about every way. I have mixed feelings about both GTA 4 and 5, both in terms of gameplay and story, but overall feel that they were good games with better shooting and driving than the PS2 era games. I never got into the online stuff outside of occasional racing, but I understand that it's hugely popular.
With that background, I don't doubt that GTA 6 will be a big seller, maybe even the biggest ever... But be that as it may, I think that it is riding on a big wave of unearned cultural hype:
- We have seen very little of what the game actually plays like, and almost nothing about what sets it apart from GTA 5 in terms of systems. The marketing leads me to believe this will be less sandbox and more story...
- All we have been told about the story of this game is that you play as Jason and Lucia, two lovers and ex-cons in Vice City. The trailers focus on their relationship, which is a unique angle for a GTA game, but we really don't get any insight into who these characters are as individuals or what makes them interesting.
- Despite the fact that GTA has always been something of a hit-or-miss parody of modern (usually American) life and culture, every piece of media I've seen surrounding this game has been totally devoid of any humor or commentary. There's a lot to make fun of in America (Florida especially) today, but based on the trailers, this is looking to be the least funny or satirical GTA game ever.
- This is the most expensive GTA game ever, and that's even without factoring in the paywalled features like premium car modding and character styling, but will it be the biggest? What does $80-100 get us?
- For better or worse, quite a few of the key people who made the GTA series what it was are now out of the picture, so the development team is going to be pretty different than past games. That could go either way, but I think it does invite a certain amount of skepticism.
- No initial PC release.
- No physical release for consoles.
So again, I really don't blame people for being hopeful or excited about a new GTA game coming out. If you're looking forward to this one then more power to you!
But I can't help feel that the levels of hype are way overblown for what we've seen of the gameplay, story and world building. If it wasn't part of the "GTA" franchise, I think this would be just another new release.
I've been saying it for years, but fanboys will fanboy.
They over invested and over hyped this game. I honestly don't think it can be successful. Keep in mind, for it to be successful, isn't based on what normal people think is successful. There's a lot that goes into it.
We see video games that sell well, but despite making a profit, the company says it failed. Because it didn't meet sales expectations. Think 2013's Tomb Raider.
Publicly, they've announced $1.5-2 billion, but it probably ballooned closer to $3-4 billion if we're being honest. Lets normalize the data so we don't have to do conversions, so we'll just use USD. GTA 6 is available on Xbox and Playstation only. No PC. Lets just set the price for the "low" $80 per. Wikipedia has Xbox at 35 million units sold, Playstation is at 93 million. Let's pretend those are all individual, unique sales and doesn't count upgrades (PS5 -> PS5 Pro), doesn't count collectors, etc. And everyone ONLY bought one or the other, no crossover. That gives you a maximum of 128 million possible sales (best-case scenario). At $80, that gives you anywhere between $10,240,000,000 to $12,800,000,000. WHICH... sounds like a lot. On a budget of let's say $3 billion that's the most they could earn. A roughly 3-4x ROI is best case scenario with just sales.
Except we know there's a lot of people who just aren't interested in the GTA as a brand. There are people who bought multiple consoles. There are people who just can't afford the high price of some of these games so they won't buy. So the number will go down. So there's absolutely going to be a shop and subscription because the ROI likely isn't great, and that says nothing if they don't win awards.
For contrast, lets look at last years GOTY Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. A budget of $10 million, start to finish, was 6 years, and reportedly sold 8 million units. Lets say that's ~$400,000,000 (best case, which it won't be). So an ROI of ~40x. GTA 5 sold 225 million (with a budget of $265 million), and the #1 most sold game is Minecraft at 350 million. GTA 5 spanned 7 platforms which helped it see additional sales. From PS3/XBox 360 to PS4/XBone to PS5/XBox Series X (and also PC). GTA 6 started development in 2014 and comes out 12 years later.
You'll notice that means there's not even enough consoles sold, to even match GTA 5...
So if they're looking at (currently) a best case scenario of a $1.5 billion invested (go on the low side) with a max potential $12.8 billion gives you an absolute best case of 8.533333x ROI.
So to bump that up, they'll rely on people buying multiple copies (new consoles). They'll have to release on PC, which its financially stupid they're not. When GTA5 came out, the game was designed for the PS3 (a custom PowerPC arch) and XBox 360 (also PowerPC arch). Modern Playstation and Xbox are the same architecture and are more inlined GPU wise with PCs. So there's not really any technical reason anymore. But that in-game shop and subscription are going to have to pull a lot of weight.
And there's a BIG difference when you invest millions vs. when you invest billions. At $1.5 billion... that budget could basically pump out 150 Expedition 33s. If they take 6 years each... the investment for 1 game could have funded games from one developer for the next 900 years.
I don't see how this game can be financially viable long-term. Releasing the game and everything else will be damage control at best. A lot of people are going to get fired to protect the C-suite/investors but there's a real chance this ends Rockstar. Fanboys, gaming "journalists", etc, are assuming it'll be the biggest game of all time, but there are not enough consoles for that to happen.
Whilst I have no plans to buy this game or any Rockstar game in future, I stopped reading when you said it won’t be successful
Providing the game runs ok, it could be the worst game ever created and would be highly successful in terms of sales. They could literally sell a turd
So you stopped on the second line and didn't read a single bit of financial math applied. Cool. That's certainly your choice. Couldn't even make it to the example of Tomb Raider.
I mean, it says a lot about you. Again, it's your choice to remain ignorant.
I actually did skim through, but when you’re claiming it probably cost ‘2 billion more’ than they announced, even though there’s shareholder reports….its hard to keep reading and take serious
Sure you did.
In your skimming, you completely missed this isolated section...
Where I took the lowest amount invested, and used the highest potential it can get (available consoles x $100 price).
Maybe stop with the lies? It's impressing no one.
By all means, please link to the report and point out the exact number. I'd be happy to correct all my numbers and predictions if you can provide me with the actual correct number and not the estimate.
GTA 5, on a ~$265 million budget, made ~$10 billion. GTA 5 development started when GTA 4 was released, so a development cycle of 5 years. For some additional context. That means they spent 5 years to make ~$9.7 billion, ~36.6x ROI.
You need to get yourself a partner and go outside