this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2026
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Let’s see Iran’s ceasefire statement
Right so Israel's going to bomb Beirut within 30 seconds and the deal will be off again.
They won't. Hell they can't. Israel knows as soon as it stops fighting that's it for them.
This is a complete and utter US loss if this is what they actually agree to
Complete and utter US loss happened months ago. It grows more complete and utter with each day not agreeing to this.
Iran was already doing that before the U.S. attacked. They also have an arguably more powerful weapon (in the sense you can actually use it): closing the strait.
The US did attack though 🤔
This stuff sounds good on the balance for Iran. But the reality of what the completely untrustworthy parties (US, Israel) will do is likely to differ substantially, unfortunately.
It is actually unbelievable to me that the US would pay $300 billion in reparations in some format. The only way they'd ever do something like that is if it's actually just imperialism, like they get to own Iranian infrastructure going forward and claim that 6 bridges and a water plant is worth $300 billion.
Which is a good position for them to have, yes. Slowly adopting a holding pattern of looking like the reasonable party while holding substantial leverage. But the imperialists also keep taking nasty potshots.