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My career is already impacted by others using it, whether I use it or not. Those who rely heavily on LLMs produce worse and larger code, and those relying on it heavily are not the best in the first place. It's turning -1x developers into -10x developers on account of them causing additional cognitive load on everyone else.
As for me? I don't have FOMO. If I'm right and it's a bubble that will collapse, then I'll be better suited to weather it. If I'm wrong and LLMs are all they're cracked up to be, then I will be able to get up to speed quickly.
That's the way I see it too. And is this path occurs hopefully open LLMs will be widely available and at least close in performance to the expensive, privacy invading cloud LLMs.
Although it's the non-programming related impacts of AI I'm more concerned about.
I've been experimenting with qwen2.5-coder:7b and it's the perfect middle ground. Easily runs on 6 GB VRAM while automating boring stuff and letting me focus on new things.
I've been running qwen3 coder 30B and I've got to say, I'm unimpressed.
I sent it some lines of python for analysis to tell me what's wrong with it. it miscounted the index number and said it was fine to run even though it was totally broken.
It constantly trips over itself in mid-sentence stating what it just said was wrong, and then finds a totally different way to be wrong.
it's about as dumb as a brand new college dropout developer.
I actually really enjoy berating it and calling it stupid when it confidently gets things wrong, so that's about all I keep it around for.
I think it's sadly both. Open Ai and Claude will probably die and bring the US economy with it, but the tech is here to stay until the next thing eclipses it.
it will just be like crypto, just small scale for niche stuff. it wont be peddling useless LLM