Below is my weekly summary/preamble, spoilered so that you can get down into the comments more easily.
preamble
I don't think I've ever seen a ceasefire that, for weeks, is so obviously about to be broken at any given moment and yet nonetheless continues. So-called Operation Freedom may mark a resumption of hostilities, as the US seems to once again be trying an active role in attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial, ridiculous claim was that the US Navy would itself be escorting ships (i.e. just getting your destroyers sunk for no reason), and as expected, this was just said to try and calm markets. Nonetheless, there is reporting that other military measures may be taken against Iran soon if they continue to keep the Strait closed, so we'll see how that all goes.
US gas prices at the pump have hit close to record high numbers, and generally the average citizen is growing mightily displeased with Trump, even those in previously safe demographics. Unfortunately, this discontent is not immediately geopolitically relevant - as both parties are staffed from top to bottom with pro-war Zionists with only a small group of exceptions, and third parties will necessarily never be allowed to take power, there is no way for US public discontent to manifest itself in a change of policy. What is more likely to cause changes in policy will be grumbling from American capitalists, of which there are many factions. The fossil fuel capitalists seem perfectly content for this situation to continue indefinitely, with record profits. I imagine the financial sector is pretty nervous, but aren't currently demanding Trump cease fire - same for the tech industry which has now been engulfed in AI, as the bubble seems to be close to, but not quite, popping. Smaller businesses and agriculture are perhaps the most likely to be crying uncle, but may have limited representation.
Going back to Western Asia, the situation from last week has remained broadly the same. The Zionist tactic in Southern Lebanon appears to essentially be "If we can't occupy this land, then you won't be able to, either," as they are doing their utmost to physically destroy as many towns and villages on the border as possible. Hezbollah's success at keeping Zionist territorial gains fairly minimal, and the growing onslaught of not only anti-tank guided missiles but also FPV drones causing chaos where the Zionists attempt to hold and advance, have, I believe, partially contributed to Iran not pushing the issue of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon so far as to cause them to feel the need to resume fire on the occupied territories.
The US blockade has truly been a mixed affair. While it's obviously quite leaky and many Iranian ships are getting through, Naked Capitalism and others have pointed out that it's not just Iranian ships that are transporting goods, and that there are ~70 Chinese ships with Iranian oil that are much less willing to risk running the blockade. But, once again, the success of the blockade isn't all that relevant. Iran has experienced periods of a couple years straight without meaningful oil exports and survived, and their extensive land borders make a true siege impossible - goods can and are still pouring into the country, and with Pakistan recently allowing Iranian exports through their border, as well as the Caspian Sea in the north and Iran's railway link to China, Iranian exports can still leave just fine. Another interesting indication is that China's government has ordered Chinese businesses to ignore US sanctions against Iranian oil, so we'll see how that develops. And while the issue of maintaining sufficient public cohesion in the wake of economic suffering is a potential long term problem, we haven't yet seen any meaningful scenes of public discontent inside Iran. Internal unity appears to be staying at record levels in the face of total war.
Even being as careful as possible to check my own biases, it's difficult for me to form any other conclusion other than that Iran is winning, and people like Armchair Warlord have even pointed out that American tactical victories have been pretty minimal so far.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Know your audience.
There is an extent to which, in the "polite" company of the news mega and other mostly insular leftist/communist/ML/MLM communities, I think there is probably more room for some analysis and criticism of things that the Iranian government has not handled well or needs to improve. Specifically, the growth of their own bourgeois capitalist class that has driven some economic choices that benefit said class to the cost of the Iranian working classes. The vast majority of the economic problems in Iran are still driven by sanctions and the government's inability to interact with the international banking system, but it's not the only cause of economic hardship. It's just the most significant one (by a sizable margin).
It would not be the first time that users here have pointed out that many of the socially conservative norms within Iranian society and certain socially conservative Islamic-based movements create a natural base of potential dissidents among LGBT people, women, etc. The zionists have realized this and used it to their advantage in Palestine by blackmailing LGBT Palestinians into working for them as spies. And that is just from a strategic perspective, saying nothing of the larger ethical imperitives that I would say generally all users here agree with as it relates to feminism, LGBT rights, etc.
I would also say that collectively we have a tendency to sometimes flatten internal political conflicts and issues, and that is not limited to Iran. Protests movements tend to start more spontaneously than I think we give them credit for at times, although yes, they are very regularly hijacked and coopted by outside agitators with motives that have very little to do with the initial causes of the protest. No AES or anti-imperialist state is perfect. Socialism is a process, and it's not always going to go smoothly. Sometimes that is going to result in "organic" or "spontaneous" dissent, unjustified or otherwise.
However,
the Anglosphere, where probably the majority of this userbase resides physically and/or digitally, is dominated by liberals and chuds who could not give a single solitary shit about any sort of Marxist-based criticism of the Iranian class system or the government's relationship with it. As such, any broader public criticism of Iran within the Anglosphere, no matter how heavily sandwiched between otherwise anti-imperialist rhetoric, will be cherry-picked by the libs and chuds as proof that "even the commies think the Iranian government is bad" and used as further justification for the imperialist actions against Iran. It is not lost on me that this Kurdish-Iranian academic at Paris 8 University, who I imagine is most likely from the upper classes of Iranian society, seems more concerned with frankly a number of bourgeois rights over more basic necessities needed by the same Iranian women, LGBT people, and other minorities she professes her desire to liberate.
There is, fundamentally, no meaningful communist/socialist political movement in Iran to replace the current Iranian government. The Shah saw to it that said movement was mostly snuffed out or exiled (to say nothing of whether those exiles, such as the MEK, are the sort of "leftists" I would want to support, they aren't), but the current government has also repressed some others, for better or worse. Regardless, there are no 200k Iranian Bolsheviks waiting for their own October Revolution. Should the Iranian government collapse, it will, at best, be replaced by a repressive neoliberal puppet government subservient to Western/Zionist interests. At worst there will be no Iran as we know it left to govern. By the words of Iran's own enemies, they object to Iran's very existence as an independent, unified nation-state, not just specific policies of their government. This war is existential for Iran as a whole, including the women, LGBT, and other minorities this author claims to care about. What use will not having to wear a veil be to the Iranian woman who now can't feed herself or her family because the neoliberal puppet government got rid of food subsidies? The best outcome is a tenfold amplification of the problems that spawned a number of the initial, organic protests against the government in the first place.
It's no surprise that she doesn't have an answer to what leftists outside of Iran should be doing, because there isn't one outside of "oppose the war". It's funny for her to talk about "forgrounding the critical in critical support". What she seems to want is "supportive criticism" more so than "critical support". What's interesting about her stance, and perhaps I have buried the lede here, is that in looking at a few of her other writings, she seems to be all for "revolutionary defeatism", just in the name of a Kurdish ethnostate.
Bah, go figure, I hadn't seen that one.
To be clear, I was the one who paraphrased her stance as "foregrounding the critical in critical support," she didn't use that phrase.
Yeah, I posted it here instead of in /c/slop because I wanted more analysis than dunks, and so far I'm finding the responses helpful. I don't want to just rely on boilerplate and buzzwords when I'm trying to evaluate articles like this.
I read the article, as winding and tedious as it was, and I think your summary of her thoughts on critical support is generally accurate. There is a difference between which word is the noun and which is the adjective in those phrases, at least in my opinion. But hey, I'm not a linguist.
There were things like the elimination of subsidies and workers rights issues that drove some of the initial protests. As I guess is to be expected, among Angloid leftist media, it was mainly trots that covered it and/or covered it the most in depth. But the sanctions are still the singular most signficiant driver of the economic immiseration of the Iranian people, and it additionally difficult at times to disentangle some of these other drivers from the sanctions.