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this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2023
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The problem with using ghost cities as a metric is that China has a lot of pent up demand to urbanize and those cities would get filled within a few years. That pent up demand is what led to a generation of growth.
However, the plan works until it doesn't.
China seems to have hit a limit on growth and that limit seems correlated to population growth instead of COVID. Worse, housing investment is a key way that people save for retirement. Even worse, municipalities and provinces can't raise their own taxes, so they've been incentivized to keep building even as the national government has been trying to put the breaks on the economy.
There might have been some criminal malfeasance, but there is also a failure of public policy from the national level down. Part of it may be why Xi has become more autocratic in the past few years; the party is going through its first recession in a generation and this is new ground for them.
Well, a significant part of this can be resolved nicely by creating a comprehensive welfare system. Just off the top of my head - buy out the apartments purchased as investment and provide good pensions in their place. Then people won't feel the need to participate in this failing market and won't be affected of its potential collapse. I've been wondering why there's no proper welfare system in China and I recently stumbled upon info that Xi believes welfare makes people lazy. So that's a problem. If I were a Chinese citizen whose bought into the social contract with the CCP, I'd expect the construction of a good welfare system out of it.