Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is "open" or "closed", as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.
I'm tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we'll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.
The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.
To attempt to summarize:
long summary
Against many people's expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.
The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it'll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.
Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it's not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.
Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.
These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we'll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It's still a Zionist Ceasefire ("you cease fire, we keep attacking"), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.
Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran's ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US's blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).
Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it'll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
As I continue to see people around here doom about Venezuela (and often based on misinformation, liberal idealist fantasy, and/or plain ignorance) I was looking around and saw this great interview from two months ago with leader from one of the communes: https://youtu.be/L_MKUe2tdLU
He quotes Che, Fidel, Marx, uses the example of Ho Chi Minh, talks about Gramsci and Lenin, talked about using the rage from the US attacks to deepen their revolution towards the ultimate goal of eliminating the bourgeois state, specifically citing vanguardism as a key towards that goal. He even says they have moved beyond the vanguard in the communes because they have integrated the whole community into the movement, they are now communards and no longer have a vanguard.
He says scientific, sociological and materialist analysis is essential. Many here could use a few years of learning what that is and how it works, it is bizarre to see so many self proclaimed leftists incapable of it.
"We had a tactical/military defeat but we are getting political victories. It is like the defeat of Chavez in the insurrection of Feb 4th, 1992, 4-6 years later he turned it into a victory. The military field does not define the political."
This is the words of someone who has been participating in a revolutionary movement.
To those here that have never struggled for anything, never participated in any movement larger than themselves, this is why you are a doomer who gives up on the movement. You don't know how to struggle because you haven't before. Go and participate in the struggle for a few years and you'll learn why you can't just give up on everything as soon as it gets tough, or just because one battle was lost.
Edit :just got to a great part in interview where he talks about people spreading the gringo narrative that Venezuela has become a colony of the US (is he on hexbear?!) and talks about how Venezuela has been selling oil since Chavez and that there was a headline back in the day accusing Chavez of secretly meeting with Jimmy Carter and suggesting he was abandoning the revolution. Chavez said something akin to "if I have to go to hell and meet with the Devil himself to secure the peace of Venezuela than must do that."
Again if it was only Maduro between becoming a us colony or not, then the Bolivarian Revolution was stillborn.
Truly it could have never existed if that were all it took. Great man theory is a great indicator of liberal radiation (or rad libs)
great man theory overvaluing the so-called great men doesn't mean differences between individuals don't matter. Iran having a nuclear weapon or not plausibly hinged on one guy's opinion.
that's not about venezeula, just about potentially over-correcting.
It's true, but hopefully more so in nations that are run along fundamentally different ideological basis. I would hope a socialist project has been doing the work to make their leadership replaceable.
Well said
My stance is that until the communes that Maduro armed make an attempt to overthrow Rodriguez, you really can't claim that she or the government has betrayed the Venezuelan people. If she was such a traitor, then why haven't the communes taken action at this alleged betrayal? Either the communes weren't sufficiently politicized to take action in the event of a complete betrayal in which case the Bolivarian revolution is not something worth mourning over or the communes do not believe the government has betrayed them. And as for why the communes do not believe the government has betrayed them, then it's either because the government indeed did not betray them or the collective membership of the communes is too stoopid to figure it out and should lurk the news mega moar.
There were Syrian insurgents who immediately began warring with Jolani's faction as soon as Assad's government fell on account of Jolani being a Zionist puppet. Why haven't Venezuelan insurgents with small arms handed to them when Maduro was still in power popped up to overthrow Rodriguez?
One of many examples to look to, I agree. There's no way an armed people's movement built out of anti colonial struggle is going to sit back and let their entire project be destroyed in a day without a fight
The reverse is true as well. If the Venezuelan government has indeed become traitorous, then their first order of business would be to forcefully disarm the communes. The contradiction between the Venezuelan state and the Bolivarian communes would become antagonistic. This antagonism would be resolved either with the overthrow of the Venezuelan state by the communes or with the complete disarmament of the communes by the state. Neither side is just going to sit there and do nothing.
We can see this happening with Lebanon. The official Lebanese government is staffed with Zionist compradors, and they are doing everything in their power to disarm Hezbollah. The only reason why Hezbollah has not responded back with a military response is because they do not want to plunge Lebanon into a civil war. But they very much see the Lebanese government as a Vichy regime that will be overthrown when the time comes.
Well, as one of the only other people here on the day it happened, fighting against the doomers and pointing out how saying things like "cope" is extremely reactionary, and not based in any kind of historical materialist analysis, I salute your efforts. I hope they truly are using this moment to rally the country and deepen their commitment to revolution over reform. They have an incredible task on their hands.
This rhetoric is on the communes, meanwhile the socialist party in the heights of industry and power are transferring all wealth and power to the Americans and privatizing state assets. Rhetoric does not trump actions, I thought we were materialists here. Handing over all oil funds to American control is not “struggle” it is the opposite. The Venezuelan “operation” is seen as a complete and total success by the imperialists, who got everything they wanted at a very low cost.
In fact it went so well the message taken by the imperialists is that they are all powerful and invincible and can do whatever they want without any restraint. Does that sound like they were struggled against?
It is not the doomers who refuse to struggle, it is the opposite. It is the anti-doomers who are the reflexive defeatists, always making excuses for defeats and never advocating for resistance, only following party lines. It is the “anti-doomers” who cheerlead on the surrenders with rhetoric and excuses that contradict what they previously claimed
Then why make things up and be hyperbolic ?
As yes, you are circulating gringo narratives but also an advocate of resistance. Yet you have never articulated the resistance you are not yourself going to participate in. Someone else here recently suggested the Venezuelans should have done a general strike in response, literally hurting themselves and causing no harm to their enemies, in fact signaling to the US that their desire to destroy the unity of the movement is working. What great idea do you have for the Venezuelans?
Communards: I consent
PSUV: I consent
Some ultra on the Internet: isn't there someone you forgot to ask?
100% of all Venezuelan oil funds are held in a Us controlled Qatari fund. This is widely reported and has never been disputed. The US disburses funds to Venezuela, they write the checks, and can withhold arbitrarily.
Why are you backpedaling from your claim
Show us all how all wealth and power have been transferred to the Americans and show us all the privatized assets
Do it
Oil is the plurality of the Venezuelan economy. With control of it goes control of everything, since it’s leverage. With that leverage the US is slowly already transferring state assets into private hands, with the government announcing new privatization initiatives. What do you think privatization is? It is transfer of control to capitalists
so you can't back up your claims, got it
I agree with you (not that it means much from me, an ignoramus on Venezuela) but regardless of the topic, I think the tone on hexbear needs to be more patient and low-pressure than this. If a comrade is wrong, that's a teachable moment, for them and you and everyone else here. If you're patient and respectful, then the person you're speaking to has emotional space to consider your idea instead of potentially feeling pressured to defend themself by attacking it reflexively, which is not a constructive result.
The other reason I care is that, when we are hostile toward each other, it doesn't just affect the person we are speaking to, it can start to create an overall hostile atmosphere on the site, which tends to become a feedback loop: a hostile atmosphere makes people defensive, and then they protect themselves with hostility, which makes the atmosphere even more hostile, and so on.
If someone says "control of oil is control of Venezuela," maybe there's a faulty mindset but that is first and foremost a concrete statement of belief that can be addressed with a concrete rebuttal. For example, maybe the counter argument is: "The Venezuelan people can always recapture their resources in the future, as long as revolutionary consciousness and theory are still prevalent and they are not crushed by a (potentially infeasible) ground war or prolonged fascist junta," and then maybe you make a comparison to another state that recaptured its resources from foreign capital -- or whatever your argument is.
My point is, we all learn from each other, that is how the ideological consensus on this site emerges and evolves.
Anyway, sorry for tone-policing and inserting myself into this uninvited.
This would all be fair were it not the same user throwing the same stale 'arguments' for the umpteenth time
Even then, I still think the approach needs to be the same: patient, deescalatory, willing to teach and learn, and as concrete as the topic allows, while doing your best to demonstrate to the other person that you understand their perspective. That is how you get through to someone, and that is how you maintain a healthy culture on a site that deals with complex, potentially contentious, and emotionally charged topics.
It's fine to say how you feel, no need to apologize.
I change my tone depending on who I am talking to, but when it comes to doomers talking out of their ass, I think directly combatting the liberalism is fine and sometimes necessary. There is an ideological struggle going on and I don't think we always need to be polite against people spreading gringo narratives. Many people come here with sincere questions and open ignorance but for those who are dedicated in their mission of undermining revolutionary movements with bourgeois narratives, no evidence, and a refusal to engage with counter arguments, they can sincerely get fucked
I won't discount that some of it may be ~~gringo~~ brainworms, but I also think some of it is a reaction to fear and uncertainty.
The US empire is posturing like we are headed toward WW3 within a decade or so, and the techno-fascists are building skynet-lite in anticipation of unrest. The empire's bloodlust is infinite and they no longer seem to care about appearances. And yet the situation is still early and vague, so no one really knows what will happen, and it's hard to reason about, which lends itself to vibes analysis.
I think the unspoken doomer position is, "we need to be pessimists so we'll be prepared." I'm putting words in their mouths, but they may feel that some leftists underestimate the US or do not want to hear bad news, which they would see as a dangerous attitude at a time like this. We're social creatures, we want our peer group to be prepared for trouble, because we depend on each other.
And to be totally fair, evidence suggests that the US does have a plan. Whether it will work is another question, but the US is probably not just fumbling around doing whatever Trump wants. So when a doom-inclined person sees hexbear discourse about apparent US incompetence or impotence, they may feel they need to push in the other direction, potentially more than is warranted.
Personally I'm an optimist, both as a matter of rational belief (to whatever extent my amateurish beliefs are rational), and as a conscious choice to maintain morale, which I think is crucial for any group under contest. I think the revolutionary people of the world are determined and have heart, and I think the US is crumbling along with its systems of geopolitical control.
*I forgot to add, whether or not a charitable interpretation is true, I still always try to start there, and continue until the person removes all doubt -- and maybe this person already has, I don't know all the history. Just putting that out there.
**Crossed out "gringo" because it's no longer ambiguous, I looked through the thread and the user has said he is not white
😠