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Quantity vs. Quality: A Dangerous Equation

While the United States Navy’s submarine force is undoubtedly qualitatively superior to China’s growing submarine force, China’s force is growing larger. Having already surpassed the Russian Navy’s submarine force as the world’s second-largest, China is on track to catch up to the US force soon. What’s more, the Chinese submarine force is backed by the world’s greatest manufacturing base, specifically designed to scale advanced systems (like submarines). It’s true that the United States still has greater experience operating advanced nuclear submarines and managing their systems in combat than the Chinese do. But, as always, quantity has a quality of its own that is hard to overcome with quality alone.

The Numbers That Should Alarm Washington

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) issued a report stating that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operates six ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBNs), six general-purpose nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 48 diesel-electric Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines. China’s submarine force is expected to reach 80 by 2035. Meanwhile, the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) projects that the number of Chinese submarines will grow from 66 in 2020 to 76 by 2030, with China’s PLAN nuclear capabilities rising over time.

China’s Shipyards: The Real Strategic Weapon

According to a recent Popular Mechanics report, from 2021 to 2025, China launched 10 new submarines, while the US Navy launched only 7. The Chinese Bohai Shipyard at Huludao is one of the primary reasons for China’s submarine production boom. Defense News reported that the Bohai Shipyard’s “Eastern Assembly Hall has space for twelve assembly slots measuring 144m long, while the newer Southern Assembly Hall has eight slots measuring 157.5m long.” The Eastern and Southern Assembly Halls of the Bohai Shipyard could accommodate the simultaneous construction of 20 nuclear attack submarines. The United States today has no comparable capacity at that scale. Indeed, the shipyard tasked with building US submarines is already struggling with a workforce crisis, along with a retinue of supply chain shortages and industrial bottlenecks. Chinese investments in their shipyards for submarine construction have clearly paid off, doubling submarine production in China and preparing for sustained expansion into the 2030s.

A Future Where China Challenges US Undersea Dominance

On the other hand, the United States has yet to fully modernize and expand its naval shipyard capacity, creating real strategic gaps in the US Navy’s defense posture. Over time, the PLAN could surge its submarine production to the point that it will erode US undersea dominance. In fact, this surge might allow Chinese ballistic-missile submarines to threaten large parts of the United States from relatively protected waters near China. What’s more, the Chinese are both expanding the number of their submarines and the complexity of these systems. According to CRS, the incoming Chinese Type 095 and 096 submarines are expected to bring much-needed improvements in propulsion, sensors, weapons, and vertical launch capacity (though China still has weaknesses in propulsion and quieting technologies, even as it advances). It’s a troubling trendline for the United States.

Geography Still Matters—For Now

Defense Priorities urges caution before buying into the trendline argument. In their view, geography still works against Beijing’s naval expansion plans. China is hemmed in by the First Island Chain. Furthermore, Chinese submarines and ships must pass through several smaller chokepoints, such as the Bashi Channel and the Miyako Strait, to project power beyond their immediate territory. Once China shifts from a regional defensive force focused on the First Island Chain to an expeditionary power, the PLAN will face logistical and basing disadvantages relative to the United States. Yet the Chinese are not fully interested in projecting power beyond their near-abroad (not right away, at least). So, the Chinese submarine threat is most dangerous in the area closest to their territory, which is of concern to the United States.

Time is On China’s Side

To address this decline, the Trump administration has launched its “Golden Fleet” initiative, a bid to surge production of US warships and submarines to stay ahead of American rivals, such as China. However, this is unlikely to have the intended effect, as the drag on US ship and submarine production remains America’s broken naval shipyards. Little has been done to truly reverse the decline of these vital capabilities. The longer this situation persists, the larger China’s submarine force will grow. The greater the number of China’s submarines (and the more advanced those subs become), the less likely the United States will be to wage war successfully against China in the First Island Chain, where any conflict will likely be waged.

That leaves the US at a critical disadvantage against China’s numerically superior fleet. The maintenance backlog has “substantially reduced” the number of nuclear submarines operational at any given moment, cutting the “force’s capacity for meeting day-to-day mission demands and potentially putting increased operational pressure” on submarines that are in service, CRS naval analyst Ronald O’Rourke said in a July 6 report. The Naval Sea Systems Command blamed “planning, material availability, and shipyard execution,” according to a statement issued in response to the new statistics. The service has launched several initiatives to address these “primary maintenance delay” drivers, it said.

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US defense officials and lawmakers consider the submarine force a key advantage over China’s bigger navy. The inactive subs are not the nuclear ballistic missile Ohio-class submarines but fast attack boats that can fire torpedoes and Tomahawk cruise missile at vessels and land targets, and perform stealth missions such as surveillance. The previously undisclosed backlog woes stand in contrast to current Pentagon policy that’s called for increased visibility worldwide for the US sub force as a message to China, Russia and North Korea. The US has occasionally showcased its submarines in the past, but the pace picked up in the last year with publicized port visits in the Arabian Sea, at Diego Garcia, at Gibraltar and in the Atlantic.

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One current example of the extreme backlog is the USS Connecticut, one of three premier Seawolf-class submarines. It struck an underwater mountain in the South China Sea 20 months ago and won’t be back in service until early 2026 at the soonest. The best year for attack sub availability was fiscal 2015 when 19% — or 10 of the then 53 subs — were in overhaul, according to figures contained in a June 13 Navy information paper. In 2022, the Government Accountability Office said the Navy lost 10,363 operational days from 2008 through 2018 — the equivalent of more than 28 years — “as a result of delays in getting into and out of the shipyards.” The newly disclosed statistics “are not surprising considering how the shipyards have been struggling to support the fleet with old facilities and inefficient layouts,” GAO spokesman Chuck Young said. The Navy is five years into a 20-year plan to redesign the four shipyards. Young said the Navy still doesn’t have reliable cost or schedule estimates five years after the improvement effort began, and likely won’t have a better forecast until 2025.