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No, the apocalypse is here, just ask any recent college graduate. AI is coming for their jobs first. In fact, I've heard many people claim that the output of their AI is just as good as an entry-level hire, so why hire anyone?
What happens 10 years from now, when AI hasn't measurably improved, but now all the humans who would have moved into those mid-level jobs aren't there to do it?
As a new grad, I honestly feel like AI output is worse. It gets stuff wrong pretty frequently and even I, as a new grad, at least know enough to notice when it is wrong. These days I don't use it at all, cause reading the docs is faster and also more accurate (and also cause of all the other issues with AI too).
I can talk to a new grad today and she will remember what I told them when I ask them tomorrow! Truly marvelous
Well... sometimes. More often than the LLM!
Especially because part of the "art" (term used extremely loosely) of using an LLM is to frequently throw out its context (i.e, the input you've already given it) because of context rot.
I'd take a fresh grad any day of the week over the slop machines. Fresh grads are great.
This is (will be) the real damage... the disruption of the intern→apprentice→intermediate→journeyman→senior software dev/architect pipeline. I mean, companies in general have always tried to shirk their duty (IMO) to take on mentoring, always pushing educational institutions to give them raw meat who can 'hit the ground running'; "AI" now gives them a new way to avoid in-house training and long-term commitment to their current and no-longer future employees.
The law field is already facing this. They took on many specialized tools to replace clerks and people hired to search case law. The people normally hired to do that work were the future lawyers hired by those very firms. The total pool of candidates to hire from shrunk and now they're having to fight over the reduced quality of candidates to keep many of the firms afloat.
Fewer trainees == fewer qualified hires in the future (duh).
It's back to a Tragedy of the Commons all over again. With all firms hiring and training lots of young lawyers, there were plenty of people to hire in the future. Then, each firm stopped training as many themselves to save money and get a personal advantage, which leads to a smaller future pool to work with for everyone. Rinse, wash, repeat across the industry and now there's a crisis.
This actually opens up an opportunity for law firms who want to mentor lawyers all the way up from new-grad. As they will not experience the lawyer shortage as they-themselves trained them. You can even reach into the pre-grad pool by giving paid internships, then giving interns you like offer letters contingent on them graduating the following year.
Entry-level hires are a net resource drain on a company. It takes significant time from another experienced employee to bring the entry-level hire up to speed. That net resource drain can last months or even a year+ depending on how specialized the knowledge is. The entry-level hire should become a mid-level employee after that, but the AI just never does.
They certainly hit harder after 10 years too! Even worse if a notable percentage of entry-level hires are outsourcing their thinking and aren't learning/improving.
Even so, thats their responsibillity. The alternative is fucking with employment standards and loopholes so they can import and have cheap slaves, they shouldnt be able to shirk hiring and training domestically, thats some bullshit
Everyone thinks AI is bad at their own job specifically because they actually know their own job well enough to release how much AIs ability to do it is entierly superficial, this is the case for pretty much all jobs that its about to 'replace'. Unless it drastically improves we're going to end up with no entry level hires AND no AI that can do the job and everyones going to be fucked all round because they've gone off the deep end and expect everyone to be born with a decade of experience.