That's totally doable, if Hormuz stays closed, and I see no reason for Iran to reopen it, prices are gonna keep surging. Most of the energy going to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan was passing through there. They don't even have large reserves. So, once they start running out, it's gonna be a bloodbath.

[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

The difference between 2008 and today is that the US is a net exporter, which means the US has the option cut its exports to keep oil prices down at home. That'll have fascinating effects on global oil markets.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 13 points 1 day ago

Yup, the US is largely self sufficient in oil and gas right now. However, if the US cuts the vassals loose, that's going to be disastrous as well. The US has significant dependence on trade with G7 countries, and if they start collapsing economically, then there's going to be blow back in the US as well. It'll likely be a bit more delayed, but I can't see how the US escapes this unscathed.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Fossil fuel markers are global. Unless the US stops all of its oil producers from engaging in international trade, they cannot prevent prices from rising in the US. The fossil fuel lobby is extremely powerful in the US and it is very unlikely they would allow the state to take such an aggressive action against free trade, as it would deprive them of a golden opportunity for enormous profits. Not to mention it sets an incredible dangerous precedent of the state exercising power over the private sector. And even if they do stop or severely curtail exports, that will have even bigger consequences on the US through the cascading effects of a global economic crash, since the US is highly embedded in the global economy.

[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 day ago

Unless the US stops all of its oil producers from engaging in international trade

It could, though. The fossil fuel lobby would oppose this, of course, but they're not the only lobby. Never mind the fact that all of Trump's supporters drive oversized vehicles. Amazon doesn't want high fuel prices, neither do Uber or DoorDash, neither do GM or Ford or Stelantis, neither do farmers, neither do construction companies, neither do data centers, neither do military contractors or the Pentagon, and so on. There are a lot of economic and political forces that want to keep fuel prices down.

This would begin a collapse of the old economic order, of course. If Canada and Mexico could be convinced to go along with this, lead by the US's new "hemispheric dominance" strategy, we might see oil prices totally diverge between East and West.

I have no idea what is going to happen.

[–] HobbitFoot@thelemmy.club 1 points 1 day ago

Markets are global, but North America is somewhat shielded as the continent only has so much export capacity. Along with now controlling Venezuelan oil trade, I can see the USA picking winners and losers.