this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
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Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.
Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.
All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.
However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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https://militarnyi.com/en/news/usa-doomsday-plane-e-6b-mercury-middle-east/
"we have to use nukes to prevent nukes" would be some typical US shit.
'No Way to Prevent This,' Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens
If they use an ICBM it will likely lead to nuclear war, I can’t believe they’d be that stupid, but I’ve been thinking that for years now and they keep surprising me…
Maybe. Maybe you can get away with tac nukes on hardened sites without triggering something world ending, but even there, opening that door will have horrific consequences both in this conflict and others ongoing (ie russia says, ok you use em, we use em, and you’re back on the greased chute to nuclear winter)
I doubt it.
For the simple reason no other nuclear power (main ones not totally subservient to the US and zionist entity being Russia and China) is going to put its own neck and people and country on the chopping block by hitting the US with a nuke in response.
It's the same with the US "nuclear umbrella". If Russia really did nuke Germany I really don't think the US would risk a full nuclear attack on itself avenging them. They'd throw a tantrum and nuke a small Russian base and tell them on the secret phone that they won't take any more actions if Russia doesn't respond.
Russia and China will watch. They will condemn, they will condemn in an especially strong, angry tone with veiled threats. They will up their nuclear force posture, they will make it more threatening to the US, they will make it clear they will not be killed off with a first strike and will obliterate the US if it tries that with them and that will be it.
There will be the usual condemnations from Russia, China, a few other actors painting US actions correctly as crimes against humanity, war crimes, endangering peace, endangering nuclear non-proliferation (as after seeing that WHO wouldn't want nukes?), etc, etc. There will be angry speeches for weeks after, there will be a few very tepid both sides non-denunciations from Europeans (and probably India who seems to like joining that chorus lately).
Maybe Russia might take the opportunity to say "if the west gets to do that we get to nuke Ukraine since our intelligence has been telling us of plots to smuggle French or British nukes into Ukraine to pressure us" and then actually do it to force Ukraine to collapse and to prevent the deranged Nazis there from nuking Russia.
DPRK is about the only one who might tip-toe up to the edge of nuking the US in response but even they would back down as having your people obliterated for people half a world away who aren't even communists of any stripe is a bit high of an ask though they like Russia and China would feel very threatened and likely up their nuclear deterrent and perhaps even conduct a test detonation to warn off the US.
It would fit perfectly with Trump's Nixonian "mad-man" profile he's trying to create for the US to unbalance enemies and get countries to bend the knee in front of such unrestrained, monstrous aggression. And it or seizing Iranian nuclear material using boots on the ground would be the only way to present the increasing failure of this operation as a win to the American people who would be slightly horrified but more just chalk it up as a Trump bluster than an actual crime or horror.
Your analysis is excellent and I agree. My case of the ICBM is more relying on the tripwire like systems that can cause a cascade of actions leading to full launch based on the scenario in Nuclear War.
That narrative is by no means the only way things can go down, but her number one take away was that there is no such thing as small scale nuclear war based on how all the doctrines and systems intersect. We also don’t really have historical examples of doctrine in action since there’s only ever been one instance of nukes being used, by US, pre doctrine/modern nuclear weapons.
I don’t remember the exact details, it was basically some of the satellites that watch for icmb launch are better and worse than others and there can be glitches, etc.
But I think your layout is pretty strong and a likely way it would unfold.
Russia would have to announce that they are extending their nuclear umbrella to Iran. I don't know that anyone is going to do it, frankly. I have more faith that Russia would do it than China, though.
Yeah this is a fair point. As @oliveoil@hexbear.net pointed out, more likely they would just use a tac nuke to close out Ukraine.
If US used an ICBM launched from a sub, the outcome is far more dicey, as that could trigger all sorts of potential early warning systems that might set in motion major nuclear activity from multiple actors, since it’s not entirely clear where an icbm is going until it’s too late…
I realize Pakistan isn’t necessarily best friends with Iran, but I think I remember something where they said they’d use nukes if Israel used a nuke on the region. And depending on size and fallout, I could see India having a problem with it if the winds were going g to blow stuff towards them.
If they fire from the south - it goes towards Russia, if they fire from the west - it goes towards China, India, Pakistan, North Korea.
According to military and foreign experts, if nuclear fallout lands on China, they would respond with a nuke.
Is Iran close enough??
On the scale of wind patterns blowing radioactive fallout into population areas, they are practically neighbors. On social media, they've already reported that the acid rain from the oil fires is going to blow into India and China. I don't think this is something we want to gamble on.
This might be because of the Iranian strategy to blind the US radars and then go after comms
I hope this is it; they just need more communications assets… but I worry given how unhinged the leadership in the US and Israel are.
There's a good chance they will nuke Iranian strategic sites rn.
Yeah I’ve had a sick feeling in my gut that it might happen, as soon as it looked like things weren’t going well for the western aggressor forces. Israel has always been crazy enough to do it, and Trump is demented enough to also make the call, since nothing exists outside of himself.
Hoping it doesn’t happen, but if they did hit some hardened sites, I wonder what world response would be. Would China and Russia do anything? Responding in kind, hitting Israel with a tac nuke would likely kick off major launches, game over. Not responding would basically be agreeing that everyone who is not nuclear simply has to take anything west/isreal dishes out, because if they lose, they nuke you. Talk about a loaded deck, I hate that kind of thing.
If they tac nuke Iran, it opens the door for Russia to tac nuke Ukraine.
And the leadership of all countries know this.
It opens the door, sure, but would Russia use a tactical nuke in a war they are all but destined to win (and have been slowly winning for a long time) anyway? Why? Or are you saying that Russia would do that purely as a show of force and willingness since the US got to?
Idk, that was Jiang's prediction. That they would declare Iran under their nuclear umbrella and nuke Ukraine if Iran is hit as a threat - I guess as a threat against the escalation.
Is nuking UA even worth it for them? I don't think there is much there that's actually worth it, its not like UA has any industry of its own to destroy. I'd guess escalating elsewhere would probably be more beneficial, maybe US/NATO bases or something would be appropriate, but that would obviously trigger MAD, so
From a diplomatic perspective (whatever that is with right now), it would remain the case that "the US is the only country to ever have used nuclear weapons". Not sure what to could do with that though.
Yeah this is my assumption as well