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Every election we hear that Texas is in play and every election Texas stays red.
And every election, the Dem gets closer. MAGA has never been more vulnerable than they are right now, and the possibility of a flip has never been higher. With the right candidate, and a smart campaign, the Dems actually have the chance to pull it off this time.
Texas used to be an R+30 state and now it's an R+8, with '18 bringing it to an R+2.
Harris County used to be the beating heart of the state party going back to the 1960s when Pappa Bush took over the organization. In '22, a Republican wave year with millions sunk into the county and Abbott jamming his thumb on the scale, Dems still swept every local race. Republicans retreated from multiple winnable swing districts - TX 7 and TX 29 - by packing them with Dems rather than splitting them up, resulting in a meager R+1 for the state as a whole in what should have been a GOP landslide. The surrounding suburbs were also stubbornly blue - from Tom DeLay's old stomping ground of Sugar Land to Katy, Texas and Clear Lake. Dallas keeps flipping blue. The Austin blueberry keeps growing larger. And the enormous South Texas Hispanic population is still uncommitted to either party.
More recently - just three weeks ago - the Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a Texas Senate seat in deep-red Tarrant County by a decisive 14-point margin. This is a district Donald Trump won by more than 17 points in 2024.
You can poo-poo the idea that Texas will go Blue in 2026. And there's plenty of historical evidence to suggest you'll be right. But the idea that Texas isn't in play is absurd. The Republican majority in Texas is being kept afloat in large part by the 2006 off-year gerrymandering (and repeated off-year re-gerrymandering) initiated under Rick Perry and repeated in the face of thinner and thinner margins. They have spread their voter base thin and run an increasingly unpopular mix of state level candidates for far too long.
And, as the state pivots towards a profitable investment in renewable energy and battery technology, even the old O&G bullwark is slipping. This has been a miserable year for historical GOP mega-donors. The state's big investments in bitcoin mining have flopped. The Hispanic population (a historical tipping point demographic that has leaned Republican since Bush was governor) has been targeted by ICE raids for the last six months poisoning them to the Republican brand.
Tons of headwind in a state that's an absolute must-win for Republicans. Dems would be stupid not to try and flip it.
People also forget Texas had a Democratic governor in the 90s, which is what caused republicans to start playing dirty.
And part of the Republican panic about demographic shifts making their party unelectable was Texas.
Texas being a battleground state for Republicans could doom the party to generational minority status.
Didn't Betoblose by only like 2% or so? That's very close. If California had a republican within 5%, the GOP'd sell their moms to buy ads.
Texas is a suppressed, nonvoting, fairly purple state. There's always a chance and this year is probably as good as it could be since reformation.
2% after he wouldn't shut up about taking everyone's guns...
Talarico isn't saying that tho, that's why the FCC wouldn't let him go on Colbert and why maga pushed the polls that had Crocket doing well, the very polls she cited as the reason for running.
Like, maybe it'll backfire.
But I really can't see how people could think the best candidate, is the one that never thought of running till Republicans told her to. The fact that she's naive of what's happening and just plowing ahead anyways doesn't reassure me about how well of a leader she'll be.
No questioning attitude, she's going to be manipulated by someone, and her corporate donors likely already are whether she knows it or not.
She also takes AIPAC money.
It's the turnout that kills us here. In 2018 when Beto nearly defeated Cruz, we had 46% turnout.Historically we have like 25-45% turnout of eligible voters in midterm elections, which are the ones where our state-wide executive offices are elected. We only breach 50% for presidential elections, and even then I think around 63% is the highest. The districts are so gerrymandered, I thin kit would be difficult to flip the state house even with a surge in voters. But if we can flip the Gov. Lt. Gov, and AG in a midterm then we'll finally have some capacity to try and unfuck the district maps.
The turnout has a lot to do with our horrible labor laws and the absolute farce that is local media. There is never any communication or outreach by anyone to spread the word on local elections. It’s not that people don’t want to vote, it’s simply we don’t know when. If you aren’t constantly googling when your elections are we have no idea what is going on so it’s easy to see how people on the fence just don’t even bother.
Right, but it costs the republicans more money every year to keep it red, and that's money they don't have for other races.
I will say that in my twenty years of voting it's moved from over a decade of "Texas will never" to "You're saying there's a chance?" and given their potential Icarian further gerrymandering that recently resulted in a some unexpected D wins, it's progress.
However, I do tend to agree with you on this Senate race at this time so I'm just donating for the best but expecting the worst.
The DNC actually trying to win every race and the fact it started handing out money to do so over a year ago with no plans of stopping means a lot of these "any election now" races are all gonna flip at once.
It's why primaries are so important, for a lot of races it's gonna be tougher to win a primary than a general in 2026/2028.