this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2026
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I’m pretty sure enough of these moments is why we now have absolutely catastrophic weather forecasts every other week but they usually aren’t so bad
No, it's because Trump cut off access to data from weather satellites.
It’s been like this for longer than Trump cut off access from one satellite
Well we've just generally not been great at funding any science agency for quite a while.
The European weather models have also been overstating severe weather
I really just think it’s as I said and nobody wants to be caught under predicting weather so they default to the worst values their models predict
Similar to how the US started enforcing fines for late arrivals of airplanes. So the airlines just extended the “duration” of their flights to include the expected delays and now they’re “99.9% on time”. You can see this in action when the pilot says “well we’re waiting for something before we leave. It’ll be another 15 minutes but we’ll still get you there on time.”
Climate change has increased the chance for extreme weather and made it harder to predict when it will actually happen. Those moments happened more when the models weren’t taking into account what climate change has done.
I’ve seen the climate shift before my eyes too but I mean the specific storm predictions but not hurricanes tracking which has actually become very accurate
The local storm predictions I will watch update in real time and dramatically reduce all their numbers as it comes in that it wasn’t the worst case scenario
It’ll be “accurate” when it finally is the worst case scenario so nobody will be underprepared but it annoys me that it’s constant specific forecasting doom until it isn’t
After watching weather with my own peepers for close to five decades in a cognitive capacity, I can safely say that weather is just getting more extreme all around.
It's over 80° in Phoenix and parts of SoCal this week, the first week of February. We're absolutely fucking fucked.
Meanwhile parts of Texas and the East Coast have gotten more snow than they've seen in a decade.
Bad thing now is that I ignore them.