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Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (energyandcleanair.org)

submitted 13 hours ago by Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.org to c/world@lemmy.world

5 comments fedilink hide all child comments

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/50183000

In 2025, China’s new and reactivated coal power project proposals surged to a record high, while capacity additions that came online reached the highest annual level in a decade, even as clean energy put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for the first time and drove down coal power generation.

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TL;DR:

2025 saw China’s current coal power build-out cycle reach a new high. Coal power capacity additions reached their highest level in a decade, even as coal power generation declined, and clean energy met all net growth in power demand.

New and reactivated coal power project proposals surged to a record high. If built, the projects proposed in just this one year would commit China to years of coal expansion beyond power demand growth and climate requirements, reflecting a rush by the coal industry stakeholders to advance projects ahead of tighter policy constraints.

With a large pipeline of projects still under construction and permitted, rapid growth of coal power capacity risks extending into the early years of the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period, while coal power retirements remain low.

Meeting China’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target implies a shift away from baseload coal power and a decline in operating hours. Yet coal capacity commissioned in 2025, and much of the remaining pipeline, remains dominated by large units designed for high-utilisation, reflecting incentives that favour energy and capacity over flexibility.

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[–] Dave@lemmy.nz 2 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

I think it's worth noting that all this energy is needed for all the manufacturing that we demand. Western countries aren't blameless in this.

[–] Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.org 7 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

No. Just read the article. Most solar panels China produces sit and do nothing. Instead of investing into the domestic grid, China pursued a policy to subsidies production even as the output is not needed, neither in China nor in the world. The only thing Western countries are to blame is that they didn't ban cheap Chinese tech already back in the 2000s (industry experts have warned about this even then).

This problem has intentionally been "Made in China." Something like this happens if a centralized government wants to gain control over entire supply chains while ignoring economic realities.

China's government has been getting a lot wrong here for a long time, and by now there seems to be no intention to correct course. There are many excellent analyses that proof this, for example, one is here:

The explanation for China’s recent coal boom lies in a combination of policy priorities, institutional incentives and system-level mismatches, with origins in the widespread power shortages China experienced in the early 2020s.

In 2021, a “mismatch” between the price of coal and the government-set price of coal-fired power incentivised coal-fired power plants to cut generation ... China had – and still has – more than enough “dispatchable” resources to meet even the highest demand peaks. (Dispatchable sources include coal, gas, nuclear and hydropower.) It also has more than enough underutilised coal-power capacity to meet potential demand growth.

A bigger factor behind the shortages was grid inflexibility. During both the 2020 power crisis in north-east China and the 2022 shortage in Sichuan, affected provinces continued to export electricity while experiencing local shortages.

A lack of coordination between provinces and inflexible market mechanisms governing the “dispatch” of power plants – the instructions to adjust generation up or down – meant that existing resources could not be fully utilised ... Nevertheless, with coal power plants cheap to build and quick to gain approval, many provinces saw them as a reliable way to reassure policymakers, balance local grids and support industry interests, regardless of whether the plants would end up being economically viable or frequently used ...

[–] Dave@lemmy.nz 2 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Well my point was basically this:

The only thing Western countries are to blame is that they didn’t ban cheap Chinese tech already back in the 2000s (industry experts have warned about this even then).

But you're right, I started reading with an agenda and got the wrong point.

This problem has intentionally been “Made in China.”

You're implying it was the government's intent rather than incompetence?

[–] Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

You’re implying it was the government’s intent rather than incompetence?

I wouldn't say incompetence in that there are many excellent experts in China who perfectly know -and always knew- a better way forward. The problem imo is that they have nothing to say, and everyone who dares to express an even slightly different opinion than the central government risks to get in big trouble.

As an example: Because China wants to achieve its planned GDP growth, political leaders in the provinces are given 'targets' by the central government for their regional output. To reach this target (and secure their political careers?), they build coal plants and other infrastructure, although they are often not needed. As regional leaders want to achieve their local GDP goals, there is also little incentive to collaborate with each other - such as in joint grid investments that would enable them to share resources. (The central government has announced it will invest in its countrywide grid some time ago, but so far nothing tangible has happened.)

One result is excessive overcapacity in a large number (all?) sectors.

[–] Dave@lemmy.nz 2 points 10 hours ago

I wouldn’t say incompetence in that there are many excellent experts in China who perfectly know -and always knew- a better way forward. The problem imo is that they have nothing to say, and everyone who dares to express an even slightly different opinion than the central government risks to get in big trouble.

Where I live, we have plenty of experts, and the current government largely ignores their advice. I'm not sure this is any different.

Anyway, I just learnt something, so I'm going to back away now. Have a good day.