I'm hoping for the AI bubble to pop. I want to see Nvidia and X and Tesla and Microslop and OpenAI all crash and burn.
But there's another part of me that knows there's a good historical precedent for what happens in these situations. My brain is zapped but Larry Fink was the architect of the previous market crash that led to BlackRock profiteering wildly and becoming the immense beast that it is today.
I know that the big AI companies/AI affiliated companies are what is keeping the US economy afloat at the moment and I know the US will play the "too big to fail" card to do yet-another immense transfer of wealth from the proles directly to these companies in the form of bailouts.
I don't think AI-only companies are gonna survive this. I think OpenAI might be the first domino to fall. But Google commands a vast amount of diversified income sources, unlike OpenAI, and I wonder if almost every other big player in AI will get swept under but, with big bailouts and the power that Google commands, it feels like they will be poised to gobble up all the smaller fish and expand their monopoly to integrate themselves into every level of government administration as the government cuts back on expenditures to weather the fallout from the bubble popping plus the immense cost of bailouts, so I can see it being a Faustian bargain where money goes into Google (either directly or indirectly), Google vacuums up all the business and especially the data centers, then Google offers the insolvent US government the "solution" of selling them terminals for every citizen interfacing role that runs on AI and embedding AI in all sorts of bureaucratic processes that occur mostly behind the scenes. For a "small" fee, of course. (Or maybe Palantir or some scumfuck company like Larry Ellison's swoops in and profiteers from the fire sale as the market burns.)
(I'd explain all the fuckery with Larry Fink and BlackRock and how I anticipate the parallels to play out this time around but there's a lot of threads and I'd have to have the brain power available to brush up on the sources and weave the narrative together but that's not gonna happen for me today. Has TrueAnon covered BlackRock yet?)
Strange to think that the scenario of the AI bubble popping and causing all sorts of economic catastrophe for the working class people around the world while the US starts to crumble and descend into fascism and civil war is my optimistic take and that my doomer take is that AI collapses but it doesn't take the market with it and instead AI gets monopolized, bailed out, and forcibly integrated into all levels of society while the US descends into fascism and civil war.
I'm writing a novella about a (financialized D&D warlock pact) bubble pop, not that it in any way qualifies me to speak on it, but spoilers, the ending is about someone coming in and buying everything for pennies on the dollar. So I agree with the Google thing.
I'm getting HP Lovecraft's The Sorcerer vibes here, where the warlock issues a warning that the economy is now cursed and if anyone [does something the warlock specifically prohibits, like the release of the Eldritchstein Files] that it will bring about untold economic ruin but, in reality, the warlock's economic pact is structured in such a way that he can personally make the bubble pop at any point by a means that it makes it appear as though the bubble popped due to the curse and not because the warlock pressed the big red button to make it pop, so to speak.
Like if the warlock controls a supply of energy or food or something critical to the function of the economy then he can do something like appoint a fool whose management strategy would bring about disastrous effects in that one keystone industry, which the warlock is completely aware of, that would have ripple effects across the whole economy and the warlock can be like "Behold my powers!! (And don't peek behind the curtain because the power of the 'curse' was just me intentionally crashing the gold market at the right moment so that the central bank would no longer be able to issue currency and now the economy has gone to shit.)"
He was written to be more humorous and less in control. But I'm actually into having files. I have to look myself in the mirror and ask if they're ready to joke about an uh oh crime like that or if Eldritchstein has a distinct and separate elaborate circle if debauchery.
if you'll allow me to go full off topic
You've also given me things to think about that I have been called out for in my critique group. First off, the consequences of treating the warlocks under his dominion after his rise to patronhood. Because everyone likes to gamble and invest with him, he gets control over a lot of warlocks. What does that do to those whose pacts are now his domain? What do those warlocks do to society at large? It probably effects the actual economy that people rely on for goods and services. Second, if I'm lambasting the system, it's incomplete without incompetent people at the wheel. I've typically stayed away from fitting too well for people in the real world. The naked hate and depravity of real life villains doesn't do it for me narratively. I usually like a system with stakeholders and clashing motivations to sophisticate the narrative. I'll take your feedback into consideration!Sounds very cool.
Honestly I was just reaching for a very obvious shorthand concept that blended a fantasy universe trope with a real-world political matter that is topical to get a chuckle and to convey an idea in a simple way. "The Eldritchstein Files" carries so much weight that it doesn't require anything more than three words to convey a whole lot of meaning and political context but, if I'm gonna be honest, it's very Terry Pratchett-esque and fair play to anyone who likes him or that sort of fiction but I find it a bit on the nose for my own personal tastes. But taste is personal and if everyone's having fun then I couldn't be happier for them.
It's also about layers imo. Something like George RR Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones takes very obvious, real-world concepts like petty politicking in the face of a looming climate disaster and he adjusts details here and there until it still exists symbolically but it's not a device which feels awkward from a storytelling perspective. Or the white walkers as mutually-assured WMDs gone haywire and so on.
I'm not a particularly creative person and I've never done worldbuilding but I think, for me, if I was to do it I'd take that kind of approach:
What if LOTR except gritty and political?
What if internet except tree-based in a fantasy setting?
What if Bering Strait except the Arm of Dorne?
What if climate change catastrophe except cold instead of hot?
What if Epstein Files except consorting with demons or something?
It only takes a device from the real world to be one of two steps removed before it goes from being really on the nose to being its own thing and, as an example, the tree-based internet seems to require blood sacrifice or something so it feels very different and very grounded in the story rather than being out of place.
(Why am I giving you worldbuilding advice? Wtf is wrong with me?)
Funny you should mention that. I had one where the MC's magic was primarily based around "fae chatter". Essentially they had twitch chat follow them around. It made them semi-clairvoyant. So they'd notice if they missed something on the ground, they could invalidate exams at school because they got too famous too quick, and they gave advice when they had to fight. The downside is that their advice isn't always accurate, they always had an opinion about love & other sensitive topics, and to become more powerful you must be more entertaining to the fae.
I absolutely piloted the narrative into the dirt and didn't look back. I wanted the warlock to be a novella, but I've been having so much fun that I'm having trouble with brevity. I need the practice to learn the critical concepts of character development, framing the most important concepts, and the narrative salience of events. So I made this silly guy who ruins everything.
excerpt where the MC does his sales routine for a warlock's soul (CW: description of gore esp for a child)
“You waste my time, trickster! I need a new pact. I need more power now. There is a child whose life hangs in the balance! There is no expense too great for me.”“I hear you, I totally hear you.” I comforted him, quickly realizing the limits of my script. “That’s actually why I’m here. I have healing powers I can grant via a pact, I just need to know about the terms - what’s wrong with the child and what kind of expense you are capable of spending so I can actually be of service.”
I saw his eyes soften. Sucker. Loser. I caught him hook, line, and sinker. All I had to do was putt him into the hole.
“The child snuck into the battlefield. She is the orphaned daughter of the woman I loved, wed to another. If you can put her ribcage back together you can take me in her stead.”
“Gotcha. So it sounds like you have an immediate need for power. Would it be helpful if I went over the terms of the pact?”
“Please…” He spat through his clenched jaw. His eyes were red with tears and desperation. “If I cannot find Ifrit I will take what I can.”
You never want to be desperate during a negotiation. He had remarkably bad form.
what if the someone is China?
My idea was that the more canonical DnD pantheon (or at least the ascendant powers who make pacts) get absorbed by an Elven pantheon.
I was work shopping the story taking place on magically augmented Earth at which point a Chinese dominance would be funny, if not a tad obtuse.
If it's China then I am constitutionally bound to ask the question - but at what cost?