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Do you assume that a collapse of the US economy is impossible?
It's highly unlikely under current conditions
What conditions would be needed to make it likely?
Not OP, but first and foremost, on this bond thing, countries are going to have to be willing to take a beating in their own economies.
Selling off bonds is like Elon selling off Tesla. The worth/wealth disappears if the market is flooded with paper.
Another condition is in our face: The Buffett Index, which is total stock market value vs. GDP. We topped 200% for the first time a couple of weeks ago. It was around 130% in 1929 and 2008. Most of that bullshit money is in AI. We got real problems.
Quite a few. But, just for starters, you'd need the Federal Reserve to turn off the unlimited money spigot.
I don't think that needs to happen, if you get into a hyperinflation situation, right? And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.
You need a sharp drop in available commodities, services, and investments to achieve hyperinflation. It's a phenomenon mostly confined to countries trapped under sanctions or trading in very low volume circulation currency.
The US petrodollar balances supply of money against supply of oil (and other major benchmarks - US real estate, US financial debts, etc). This guarantees a strong global demand for dollars, even (perhaps especially, with respect to debt) during downturns.
He's been undermining the global trade economy. But it's a big rock and even the President only has a small hammer.
What has historically triggered big contractions in the US economy has been large scale debt defaults - '20 COVID induced oil price shock, '14 government shutdown, '08 Lehman/AIG massive fraud, '01 Enron/Worldcomm fraud, '87 S&L fraud + oil price shock, etc - all resulted in industry wide credit failures on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars.
What rapidly ended these rescissions was direct intervention by the federal reserve, flooding the financial sector with money and devaluing all that bad debt.
Trump's a dummy, but he knows this One Neat Trick.
OK, that makes sense. Thanks for the long explainer.
I think the AI bubble does feel a lot like the GFC. My understanding is that the amount of leveraging is much higher than pre-gfc, too. And I'm utterly unconvinced that genAI has much real underlying value across most industries (other than some niches like copywriting, and some simple coding tasks)
Read all your comments, would like your take on the Buffett Index topping 200% for the first time (total stock market value vs. GDP). It was around 130% in 1929 and 2008.
Considering the disproportionate amount of stocks in AI, and, so far, no clear path to investors seeing a return, I'm scared shitless.
What's your take on that bit?
I mean, Berkshire itself is trading at 15 p/e. So if you take the index seriously, it's a good place to shelter your money when the storm hits.
But Buffet was a value investor and we're in a growth investor economy. I wouldn't say the index is a good indicator of a pending crash any more than it was three years ago.
Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered
Diversify your portfolio, understand why you think an investment has a bright future (and when that future has dimmed), don't try to time the market, and don't beat yourself up if you're wrong.
I don't see anything in this market to be afraid of. I see a plethora of opportunities to generate healthy returns long term.
I have no investments. Cashed out what little I had over the past two years of unemployment.
But you have a point in looking to opportunities. Always ways to profit from change and crisis. I'm more worried about the overall health of our individual investments. People usually aren't hustling their money around. Most simply contribute to their Roth or IRA or whatever and let the market play out over decades, just as we were taught.
Long term, it has been a smart play. Very hard to find a historical milestone where a $1 invested in Year X is worth less than year X+10, much less X+40
Said everyone right before evitable crashes caused by usanian infinite greed.