this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2026
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This seems like the first step of what will eventually lead to hyper inflation.

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[–] naught101@lemmy.world 12 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I don't think that needs to happen, if you get into a hyperinflation situation, right? And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

you get into a hyperinflation situation, right?

You need a sharp drop in available commodities, services, and investments to achieve hyperinflation. It's a phenomenon mostly confined to countries trapped under sanctions or trading in very low volume circulation currency.

The US petrodollar balances supply of money against supply of oil (and other major benchmarks - US real estate, US financial debts, etc). This guarantees a strong global demand for dollars, even (perhaps especially, with respect to debt) during downturns.

And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.

He's been undermining the global trade economy. But it's a big rock and even the President only has a small hammer.

What has historically triggered big contractions in the US economy has been large scale debt defaults - '20 COVID induced oil price shock, '14 government shutdown, '08 Lehman/AIG massive fraud, '01 Enron/Worldcomm fraud, '87 S&L fraud + oil price shock, etc - all resulted in industry wide credit failures on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars.

What rapidly ended these rescissions was direct intervention by the federal reserve, flooding the financial sector with money and devaluing all that bad debt.

Trump's a dummy, but he knows this One Neat Trick.

[–] naught101@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

OK, that makes sense. Thanks for the long explainer.

I think the AI bubble does feel a lot like the GFC. My understanding is that the amount of leveraging is much higher than pre-gfc, too. And I'm utterly unconvinced that genAI has much real underlying value across most industries (other than some niches like copywriting, and some simple coding tasks)