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I am skeptical that the earth will necessarily experience a food supply shortages, I think the issues will continue to be the profit motive holding up an inflexible system. I think a lot of the issues with agriculture are essentially engineering challenges and social challenges that will break slowly or shift arable land, but we understand so much more now and can even genetically modify food to adapt. The worst problems will likely be when financialized agriculture makes a calculated decision to simply raise prices rather than adapting to keep people alive- or worse yet, engineer things to make them intentionally worse in order to increase prices and then blaming climate change itself
idk, bit doomerish here, but with the way biodiversity loss is going, I feel like there might be some catastrophic breaking point where 'nature' just sort of stops working for the most part and all sorts of base processes we take for granted start to break down.
Am I being unreasonable there?
No you're not. A blue ocean event is coming soon and without that ice to absorb heat things will get worse fast.
Honestly I feel like they should rename it to something that shows the urgency of how bad this is other than just "blue ocean" event. Something like big fucking extinction die death event.
You’re not being unreasonable. It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll see things progressively get worse in different areas of the world for several decades. It’s already begun, to be honest. But this means we have to urgently focus on dismantling capitalism to try and mitigate the worst effects.
There are definitely major breaking points which really make things hard to predict what comes after, we won't revert to a priomordial ooze any time soon but they will make life on Earth dramatically different and worse by most mammals' standards for everyone still alive on it.
Over ~32 degrees C yields drop on all C4 pathway plants because they stop absorbing CO2. Wheat, sugar, and corn are C4 pathway plants, iirc ~8% of all plants on Earth use it. 32+ summers are expected already in most of the wheat belts around the world, this isn't even factoring in that many of those wheat belts are fed water (and therefore cooled as well as hydrated) by disappearing mountain glaciers like the Rockies and the Himalayas.
Desalination of the oceans will also dramatically alter the movement of the ocean which will alter the weather worldwide as well as killing many of the things living in it.
We can't predict the knock-on effects of even one species being wiped out, and a lot of species are going to be wiped out.
This isn't my field so take this with a grain of salt, but I feel from what I've read the threats to pollinators from climate change could lead to food crises, at least for a time as artificial pollination methods are expensive and not widespread atm so would take significant time to be spun up to replace the lost production, also the need for certain crops to be pollinated during certain times of the year could exacerbate this potential global famine even if artificial pollination could be installed quickly
probably not, but I don’t know if assuming that that is inevitable is helpful either