this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2026
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A Boring Dystopia

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Insider trading, but make it worse (lemmy.world)
submitted 1 week ago by andros_rex@lemmy.world to c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world
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[–] fox2263@lemmy.world 18 points 6 days ago (3 children)

How does one bet on random things like this. What’s the website? I have a few predictions of my own…

[–] abcd@feddit.org 33 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It seems to be this site: https://polymarket.com/

[–] naeap@sopuli.xyz 9 points 6 days ago (2 children)

How does this work?

Who verifies, that a bet is done and which statement was correct?

[–] InnerScientist@lemmy.world 14 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (4 children)

Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a market is proposed for resolution it goes into a challenge period of 2 hours. If no one challenges the proposal the resolution is deemed valid and the proposer receives their bond back plus the reward. During the 2-hour challenge period, anyone may dispute the proposal on the UMA dapp by posting a challenge bond of the same amount as the proposer bond (usually $750). This begins the debate period of 24-48 hours (votes happen every other day and there will always be at least 24 hours for discussion). Anyone wishing to contribute evidence to the discussion can do so in the Uma Discord server in the #evidence-rationale and #voting-discussion channels. After the debate period, Uma token holders vote (this process takes approximately 48 hours)

https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/how-are-markets-resolved

https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/dispute

[–] Saapas@piefed.zip 16 points 6 days ago

I... what? And they're using Discord to discuss stuff? Sounds legit 

[–] socsa@piefed.social 12 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Oh God, it's even more idiotic than I could have possibly imagined.

[–] Skankhunt420@sh.itjust.works 4 points 6 days ago

Its even worse than that

https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/polymarket-reports-unprecedented-governance-attack-by-uma-whale-on-bet-resolution

The whales can manipulate the bets and make themselves win even if it doesn't happen.

I love crypto, but this shit is a pure scam.

[–] naeap@sopuli.xyz 12 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Thank you very much for the explanation!

Although I find 2h a bit short, especially for small betting pools, where there is a high chance that mostly people sleep, work or do something else

[–] InnerScientist@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I also read that there's some rule chaneges (on what is considered yes/no) by polymark on some bets and general complaints, don't know if those are just sore losers or valid but I'd read up on that if you want to bet on the platform, I've never used the service.

[–] fartographer@lemmy.world 10 points 6 days ago (1 children)

So, I can bet on whether I'm gonna shit my pants this year? Great way to lift my spirits if I were to shit my pants.

[–] InnerScientist@lemmy.world 8 points 6 days ago (1 children)

You'd have to convince enough people that you aren't going to shit your pants first "@fartographer@lemmy.world"

[–] fartographer@lemmy.world 5 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Hey y'all. It's been a while since I've shit my pants. And I really think I can make it a full year this time!

[–] TehWorld@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

If you offer enough odds, someone would take it just to make you shit your pants and prove it. A one penny bet with $10,000 payout? Maybe you forget about it and come 2026 some idiot takes you for a wad-o-cash.

[–] fartographer@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago

I'm not 100% sure that I follow what you're saying, but it sounds like you're calling me an idiot who is gonna win $10,000??? This is so exciting!

[–] nameisnotimportant@sh.itjust.works 3 points 6 days ago

I'm wondering the same thing as well, seems very risky

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 12 points 6 days ago (1 children)

So goodbye to your money for me

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

There's some bets I wouldn't mind losing.

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Hate to have to break it to you, but placing bets doesn't alter the outcome.

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 3 points 6 days ago (2 children)

When the total amount wagered is large relative to the event, it creates an incentive for people to do things about it.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

eh, when there's large discrepancies it's more so about making $ on the swings up until the event passes. it's called arbitrage, it's not gambling if you know the actual likely result...then it's just mathing out the risk/reward and win/loss ratios

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Is that what you're going to do?

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 2 points 6 days ago

By myself? Too poor.

[–] markovs_gun@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago

Kalshi is the other big one