this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2025
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At this point, imo, we are more or less locked into at least the end of modern industrialized society, and the deaths of billions. These deaths will be due largely due to food shortages (at some point, it won't be possible to grow rice in SEA and that means famine) and forced migration, though also nuclear conflict breaking out, see eg the violation of the Pakistan/India Indus River treaty being explicitly named by Pakistan as an existential threat justifying nuclear war.
I also think it's basically impossible for us to "win" given that it would more or less require the death of the USA, whether by revolution or a very, very rapid collapse that burns through the fascist death drive remnants in short order, both ending within 5-10 years. I don't think it's likely that anything we do will matter, as what the US government actually does has nothing to do with what the people living in the US want, and the conditions are nowhere near a revolution, so even organizing probably won't accomplish anything.
But what if I'm wrong? What if getting out there and organizing actually works, and the ever-escalating crackdowns on the climate movement eventually make it so liberal co-option is no longer possible, and cause a backlash resulting in enough people turning for us to eke out a "win"? I don't think it's likely, but if my choices are to treat it as a 1% chance of winning or a 0% chance, well I might as well bet on the 1% because at least that's something. And it would also mean I'd get to watch some billionaires get what's coming to them.