this post was submitted on 23 Dec 2025
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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Wonder if this is some sort of pre model collapse sign.
Nah, it's more to do with stationary distributions. Most tokens tend to move towards it; only very surprising tokens can move away. (Insert physics metaphor here.) Most LLM architectures are Markov, so once they get near that distribution they cannot escape on their own. There can easily be hundreds of thousands of orbits near the stationary distribution, each fixated on a simple token sequence and unable to deviate. Moreover, since most LLM architectures have some sort of meta-learning (e.g. attention) they can simulate situations where part of a simulation can get stuck while the rest of it continues, e.g. only one chat participant is stationary and the others are not.
Thanks!