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So, when Proton came out, and Windows games Just Worked on Linux, a lot of developers gave up making or maintaining native Linux versions of games, and the way you make games for Linux is make them for Windows and run them in Proton.
Are we now going to make games for Windows x86 and run them in Proton, on ARM? And are we going to get to a point where we start actually making games for the hardware and OS we play them on, or are we just stuck with compatibility lasagna?
garfield i told you to get off git
When devs switch their development PCs to ARM, you will also start seeing ARM native versions. It is the same with Linux and Proton.
Gamedev here: For non-indie projects it's not up to the devs to decide which platforms get a native build. That decision is made by the publisher, and usually depends strongly on the estimated amount of extra work needed to make a native version. I agree with your statement, that if devs use ARM development PCs, they get a strong argument to convince publishers to pay for a native version, because porting costs will drop to near-zero.
However (there always is a "however"): Many devs cannot switch away from Windows. If one develops for PC only, it's possible. If one targets other platforms too (think: game consoles), one is stuck with whatever development environment the manufacturers of those platforms support - what is typically Windows and Visual Studio. It is kind of a chicken-and-egg problem. Platform SDKs will be made available for other operating systems or processor architectures once enough gamedevs are using those. Gamedevs cannot yet use those because platform SDKs aren't available for them...
It's, to be honest, a frustrating experience... I personally would switch away from MSVC and Windows the moment I get an opportunity to. However, there never was an opportunity up to now... Our previous tech-director was pushing for Linux on dev machines - or rather: "let the devs use whatever they want, as long as it works" - but there never was an opportunity to switch, due to our games' target platforms allowing only Windows for development...
I think there point is that Linux support hasn't really increased Linux native games. It's possible it's even hurt it as they can just develop for one platform - windows.
I'm not so sure. Like I say, we saw several studios say "Well since Proton works so well, we're going to stop supporting a separate Linux version. Linux users are to install the Windows version under Proton, and we'll only support that." Because almost all player communities are mostly Windows. As much as us Linux nerds hate it, we're a small (but rapidly growing!) minority, and developers would rather support the thing most people use and just ladle what everyone else is drinking into a sippy cup for the special kids than have to make a whole separate jug of kool aid. I don't think we'll see a reversal in that until Linux-based platforms represent an actual majority of the install base and do so for awhile. Nothing is more permanent than a bodge job that works for now. Not to call Proton a "bodge job" but you know what I mean.
ARM is yet another leap, possibly a farther one, than Linux.
Linux market share is still very small, so it makes perfect sense that devs make their games for Windows: they get Linux compatibility for free. Developing a native Linux build requires extra investment for next to no return. There are lots of bad Linux ports that run much worse than the Windows build running through Proton.
Larian released a Steam Deck optimised build of Baldur's Gate 3, but only because one of their devs really wanted to make it happen and most companies don't work like Larian.
If Windows market share was <30% then maybe the economic incentives would be the other way around, but there would need to be a project like Proton that lets Linux games work on Windows.