this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2025
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Over the past two months, the United States has engaged in an alarming buildup of military capabilities in the Caribbean.

These capabilities vastly exceed the demands of even the most ambitious counter-narcotics program.

A report from the Miami Herald (quickly disavowed by the Trump administration) suggested that plans were in place for an extensive military campaign against Venezuela that would target military installations and suspected narcotics transit points on the way to a potential regime change campaign.

Nevertheless, official Trump administration statements have been frustratingly vague regarding the desired outcomes of policy towards Caracas. Are we at risk of drifting into war with Venezuela?

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[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 12 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

I am not saying Venezuela will win, I am saying it has invested enough in air defense that the likelihood of the US being able to launch an air campaign without embarassing losses is lower than it appears at least in terms of how the media covers it, and the political consequences of a blundered strike that loses US lives and equipment in a high profile way would be devastating to an already very unliked republican party. Trump and his administration really can't risk looking any more dumb or incompetent than he does now, a limit is being reached though it is hard to believe one exists, it does.

If Trump and his cronies launches strikes, he will bungle the US militaries' advantage, this administration is too dysfunctional to do otherwise.

[–] Mihies@programming.dev 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

You sure though? I'd expect it at similar or lower level as Iran was. I might be wrong, though, certainly hope so. Funnily enough, they have also 2 or 3 F-16s.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 6 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

I think the amount of money in the US military industrial complex that has gone into obsessing over how best to bomb Iran is probably incomprehensible. Venezeula too a degree, but not anywhere as much. There was no way Iran could entirely deny US airpower, but so what?

This isn't just a question of strike capable technology vs. counters it is about landscapes and who knows them best and has invested in their idiosyncracies, and I don't get the feeling Venezuelans have been wasting all this time thinking the US wouldn't try some shit like this.

Were the Iran strikes successful? What did they do but confirm to the world the irrationality of US foreign intervention under this administration?

If the US wants to project actual power into Venezuela it will have to get its hands dirty and that is where the wheels will immediately fall off.

[–] SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca 1 points 4 months ago

Iran invested a hell of a lot more into air defenses and really it was Israel (which has significantly less military power than the US) that cleared the way for the one US air strike there. The effectiveness of that air campaign remains to be seen, but it certainly weakened the Ayatollah, and set back their nuclear weapons program. How much damage it did to their nuke program would be something that would be kept secret by all parties, so there's no way to know. Doesn't stop people with a political agenda from speculating of course.

Of course whether or not the strikes were effective doesn't change the fact that Israel was able to establish air superiority over Iran rather quickly. The US has the same weapon systems Israel has, and more of it. A lot more of it.

The US doing air strikes on Venezuela would be stupid for all kinds of geopolitical reasons, but the capability of Venezuela to inflict significant losses on the US military isn't one of them. Venezuela has older versions of the same weapon systems Iran had since Iran and Russia are their main suppliers.