698
Judge Hands Down Second, Emergency Ruling Protecting Portland From National Guard Occupation
(talkingpointsmemo.com)
this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2025
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politics
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While certainly true, we are fighting over the same military. And that military is oath bound to refuse illegal orders. So, the more judges that declare the orders illegal or declare an injunction against them, the more members of that military that will refuse orders.
Trump is known to turn on a dime against anyone who doesn't do what he asks. Once he does that to military members refusing clearly illegal orders, more of them will refuse. So, every bit sets the stage for winning more and more of the military against the nazis.
Best case, JAG officers from a state national guard advise troops to ignore illegal orders, trump attempts to fire them, but doesn't have the authority and he turns entire states worth of national guard completely against him. Then he orders other states guard to arrest them, and their JAG advises to ignore. So he orders the military to do it. And their JAG advises to ignore. Then he has lost the entirety of the military.
I think a lot of people are buying into the image of white guy + tac vest + gun = ICE = fed = military. These things are in no way equal but it's an important part of the administration's plans for you to imagine they are.
ICE is a big bark and a little bite. These people have minimal/no training, they are literally angry thugs on a power trip. Step back and actually think about the outrageous operations and headlines you see.
They're tough guys when they outnumber you or are tackling a 70 year old nanny, but when faced with a critical mass of opposition they tuck tail and run. The only thing they have going for them is the costume and a gun.
Turns out that watching a bunch of conspiracy videos about how brown people ruin America doesn't make you a tough guy. What actually does make you tough is years of drilling, specialized training, decades of institutional knowledge, engaging in real combat, etc. So we're back to the eternal truth: the military are the true kingmakers of the state.
In terms of personal safety you still need to watch out for ICE on the streets. However, in terms of political power they're a paper tiger. They could never lock down a city or shut down an election without massive military support. Whether the military would lend that support is an open question, but certainly not without a compelling reason (beyond the POTUS decrees it)
Exactly, so winning the tug of war for the national guard is key. And court wins help do that.