this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2025
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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 49 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (8 children)

Even after getting the base back online there's 2 years minimum before it gets capability to start putting agents back Xinjiang and then there's 1-2 years before those agents bear fruit, assuming China doesn't immediately flag and remove them.

The best this can produce is some propaganda against China to use in the west when China start arresting agents and population members who collaborate. It can't hope to harm China itself, so its best possible function is production of anti-China propaganda.

Xinjiang and Taiwan are the only propaganda in the last 10 years that has had any real impact on views of China. Taiwan is going nowhere and falling off as a tool for impact so they probably believe they really need this or westerners are going to start viewing China favourably.

It will never actually be successful in destabilising China unless somehow they turn massively incompetent and simply do not react to it which I kinda think is unlikely.

We're going to be combatting Xinjiang propaganda again in 3-5 years if they get back in to Afghanistan though.

[–] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I was thinking this was more for military use, have a base west of China that can launch missiles, planes and potentially nukes, or at least threaten to do so, forcing China to spread their defenses thinner. If the new government of Nepal turns out to be a full on US puppet, we'll probably see them do a similar thing there, allowing US troops into their nation so the US can surround China.

[–] Xiisadaddy@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 2 days ago

I agree but I dont think its much to be worried about. Frankly messing with Nepal is just gonna piss India off even more, and if there was ever an actual war with China and India on the same side or even neutral to eachother and China fighting the US then a US backed Nepal would fall in hours. And their base in Afghanistan would be destroyed rapidly too.

It shows the US is thinking of a long term containment plan for China, but its like trying to build a picket fence to keep in a Tiger. The more China grows the more obvious itll be this containment shit isnt gonna work.

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