this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2025
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There's also the Chinese Civil War to consider. Imagine if the majority of the Red Army was bogged down in Western Europe only for the KMT to triumph over the CPC and direct the NRA to invade the Soviet Union from the east. At a bare minimum, the Chinese Civil War had to end in the communist's favor before any fantastical attempt at invading Western Europe could be entertained, which would push the timing to late 1949. And if the KMT was somehow able to crush the CPC, then obviously a red invasion into Europe can't happen because the Soviet Union needs to prepare for a potential war against the ROC.
That's highly unlikely imo, even including the pre-ww2 period. China, no matter who came out on top, did not have the industrial or military capacity to launch an invasion beyond their historical borders.
The defeat of the CPC would've definitely been a disaster that would alter history to the point its impossible to even guess what the alternative would be. But even then the KMT and the CPSU had cordial enough historical relations that the turn to becoming an Eastern anti-soviet bastion would be painful slow for the western powers by my guestimate