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Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election - Wikipedia
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National have also had a lot of oxygen in the first half of this year with the various missteps from Labour. They've also got a crap ton of money that they're throwing in blanketing the country in their billboards. They've probably only been up a week or so and im already sick of them all.
What will be interesting is seeing how Luxon/Willis perform in any face to face debates with their counterparts. I suspect Hipkins may thrash Luxon on likeability and actual ideas/communicating them. When Luxon's being challenged on something he quite literally starts to turn red and can get noticeably short tempered.
Willis I think is debsoc trained so would probably fare better, but since becoming deputy a lot of the policy ideas she's promoted seem a bit factually / implementably dubious so whether she actually has a deep understanding of things is probably in question and may not do so well if a debate was on issues/facts.
Probably a bad sign for Labour that I can't off the top of my head think of who their deputy is at the moment - although that's also a bad sign for National because the reason they are so heavy into Luxon/Willis is because of how unlikeable the former is!