Table:
Pos. | Team | P | W | B | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Wellington | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
2 | Tasman | 7 | 7 | 4 | 32 |
3 | Taranaki | 8 | 6 | 6 | 30 |
4 | BoP | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Hawke's Bay | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
6 | Canterbury | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
7 | Waikato | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
8 | Counties-Manukau | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
9 | North Harbour | 8 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
10 | Auckland | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
11 | Otago | 8 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
12 | Northland | 8 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
13 | Southland | 8 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
14 | Manawatū | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Fixtures: 27/09:
- Counties-Manukau v Wellington
28/09:
- BoP v Northland
- Hawke's Bay v Auckland
- Otago v Tasman
29/09:
- North Harbour v Canterbury
- Southland v Waikato
- Taranaki v Manawatū
2/10:
- Tasman v Auckland
Predictions:
- Wellington 15+
- BoP 21+
- Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
- Tasman 12+
- North Harbour 6-
- Waikato 12+
- Taranaki 50+
1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)
Notes:
Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.
Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.
Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.
North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.
Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.
So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.
As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.
I'm very left wing so obviously my opinion is very biased in that direction, but I think Key gets a great deal of pump up from the political commentary classes because he did the politicking part of running a government successfully. He was able to keep the National party on message, was able to fudge away a bunch of different controversies without getting tarred by them and is still probably the most popular National leader of the last 20+ years.
However, if we look back at what Key's government actually did its pretty clear to me that the outcomes of their policies are bad, are being felt now and will be felt for a long time to come.
As one example, tax cut obsession, plus austerity during and after the GFC downturn has seen a huge degradation and under-investment in infrastructure. The only reason they "balanced" budgets is by not putting money in where it was needed. That's why Dunedin, Nelson, Hawke's Bay etc are so desperate for new hospitals and why they are so expensive now.
Its a bit of a blunt exaggeration but the infrastructure you build today is almost always going to be cheaper than what you build tomorrow. And then the infrastructure they did build, such as Transmission Gully, was done as a PPP, which in the long run basically always costs more than doing it ourselves. Massive over-investment in roading and under-investment in rail & coastal shipping also locked in (and now Simeon is doubling down) transport emissions for decades.