Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I think a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment in the Philippines is merely manufactured through co-ordinated media warfare and does not reflect the realities of beliefs of people on the ground. My filipino comrades can clarify this further, but from what I know, yes there may be millions, but for a region with nearly 600million people, and a country of 100million, even tens of millions still does not amount to a majority. A sizeable minority at best.
Indonesia is a unique case in that they do not actually have any overlapping SCS claims because they don’t actually neighbour the South China Sea. I would also say out of the major Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia is the only postcolonial country without a sizeable comprador diaspora or colonial-era Western educated comprador elite with sizeable power. That isn’t to say there aren’t comprador and reactionary forces within Indonesia, but there has not been a complete Western ideological capture of educational institutions within the country. They definitely do not subscribe to Eurocentric perversions of International Relations and foreign policy, which is what my critique is specifically based on. Talks of the Bandung spirit still lives strong.
Malaysia, well that’s where I am from, and I have nearly finished editing an essay on Malaysian foreign policy. And again, contrary to this weird assumption that postcolonial countries are only filled with pro-colonizer compradors, being Anti-West in Malaysia is the norm. You talk to a random guy on the street and chances are they’d praise Russia before they’d have anything positive to say about the US. There is a decent comprador population in Malaysia of course, but most of their concerns are funnelled through domestic policy issues and NGOs, and rarely does the mainstream and comprador media here talk about the South China Sea, especially with the sort of veracity and explicit anti-China bias you find in the West.
It is a complete fabrication made to enthuse the War profiteers than something that will actually lead to all-out instability (unless through US provocations by proxy of the Philippines and Taiwan).
Edit: I was wrong about Indonesia not having claims in the SCS, for I thought they had already solved the disputed claims diplomatically but actually the “North Natuna Sea” as coined by the Indonesian side still remains disputed territory. Although under the new Indonesian administration, Indonesia seemed quite happy with China’s joint development proposal, in which I generally personally agree with aswell.
But regardless, the lack of news being raised about this signifies it’s non-importance, especially considering from what I know there has been no updates on the overlapping claims of Malaysia-Indonesia.
I didn't imply that there's a majority of pro-US and sinophobic citizens in either of those countries, sorry if it seemed otherwise, I just meant that they absolutely have a presence and a voice.
Ah apologies, I didn’t mean to come off too strong. I was still pissed off at the article - let’s use that as the excuse.
The point of my reply was to emphasize that there are anti-imperialist and independent forces within each country, but it is very easy to paint Southeast Asian countries as sinophobic and fall into pessimism when this is not nearly the case, especially with the South China Sea issue.
Yeah, thanks for the remark <3 I didn't mean to invalidate it at all
I think this is quite a strange statement, given the overwhelming reactionary charachter of their government apparatus. The current Indonesian state is a continuation of the perpetrators of the genocide on the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) (It was the largest non-ruling communist party in the world, and to make sure they killed all 1 million members, 2 millions people were murdered) and the perpetrators of the East-Timor-genocide (which killed about 1 in 4 people in East-Timor, and also had anti-communist motivation). The army still operates a museum which legitimises and celebrates the murdering of the PKI, and to this day, people who participated in it are revered as heroes.
Indonesia still has paramilitaries and has a national cultus about why it was correct to exterminate the communists. I would argue it's low-key one of the most fascist states in existence.
For those interested: The Jakarta Method by Vincent Bevins is a great book about it, the documentary The Act of Killing is is an incredible film about the purpetrators and the culture around the genocide in Indonesia. It's completely crazy. The filmmakers tell some of the perpetrators of the genocide on the PKI that they want to make a lauding film about them, which they find a completely normal thing, and they happily participate in the reenactment of events, happily sharing details about theor old war-stories such asremoved minors and killing their own family members. The documentary is about how they behave when told the lie that it's going to be a positive film about the genocide, and how normal everyone finds this.
That specific comment on comprador diaspora refers to the infamous Indisch peoples , the mixed-race compradors of the Dutch East India now residing in the Netherlands. See for example “Racial apartheid continues, targeting Indonesian war victims”.
I definitely agree that Indonesia, the largest and yet one of the poorest in Southeast Asia, face numerous class divides of multiple levels, both nationally, and sub-nationally, especially with regards to East Timor and West Papua.
As for the rest of what you said, of course it is true, and the film takes the point-of-view of those involved in the massacres, in which they have already justified it all in their heads - they wouldn’t be alive to that day otherwise. The historical tragedy and trauma of the destruction of the Parti Komunis Indonesia can not be understated, and the further massacres as well.
I said what I said, because in postcolonial societies there is resistance to colonization and also submission to colonization.
Indonesia is indeed a sick society, a country with scars etched by colonization, but what I won’t accept is that Indonesia has no form of agency from Western Capital that we can plainly see through their interactions and relations with Russia and China as part of the Global South semi-periphery.
The country is suffering from the contradictions of the past and present but that does not negate the atrocious Eurocentrism when Indonesian history is talked about. It’s own unique cultural history that is intertwined with other Southeast Asian nation-states and continues to be an anti-colonial and anti-imperialist force within Indonesia, and although many were and continue to be silenced, aspects of their continual sacrifice can still be seen in the present day.
That is what I am trying to highlight when I say that Indonesian history is unique, because despite of what you mention, Indonesia still takes a neutral stance to the modern-day US-China rivalry. China has been Indonesia’s largest trading partner since 2005, 20 consecutive years. That in on itself suggests something more going underneath the surface. But a lot does not appreciate this history, and only look at traumatic events in the past without actually moving the discourse forward to present-day realities.
For an example of what I am saying, see this article for example, “International Discussion: Building International Solidarity Against Militarism in Indonesia”
and
“Indonesia’s Probable Foreign Policy Shift from the West under a Prabowo Administration”
This gives a part of the analysis, but many still need to be carried out and importantly practiced so Indonesia can finally move away from a dark period of it’s history.
That says a lot about the efficiency of China, it doesn't say much about Indonesia. Half the world has China as their biggest trading partner, that doesn't make all of them anti-colonial.
The current president of Indonesia is the son of a minister in the genocidal regime of Soeharto and he married the daughter of Soeharto. He also actively participated in the East-Timor genocide and the Truth and Reconciliating Comission of East-Timor said that he played a very significant role in the genocide in their country. He personally commanded the unit that shot the marxist and anti-colonial president of East-Timor Nicolau Lobato, which led him bleed to death. He also participated in the abduction of children in East-Timor, to be raised by families in Indonedia.
I just really have a hard time believing that this regime is anti-colonial in any meaningfull way.