this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
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https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] LoveYourself@hexbear.net 98 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Reality is winning: War, resistance, and the reunification of nation and state in Iran by Nahid Poureisa

Something is happening in Iran.

People are not only supporting the war, but they are getting closer to the state. The concept of “nation” has undergone a shift. In recent days, I have seen things I never could have imagined.

One of the most powerful images was a viral video: A young woman in Tehran, without hijab, wearing a koufiyeh, singing a deeply patriotic song under Azadi Tower, the symbolic heart of Tehran. This was not just a moment of performative nationalism; it was a statement, a contradiction of the narrative that pits the Iranian people against their state.

Social media, once a battleground of polarizing slogans, has become a platform for national unity. Campaigns are emerging one after another: to sign under the Iranian flag, to denounce Iran International (a channel broadcasting from Tel Aviv), and to criticize its recent interview with Netanyahu.

And it’s not the so-called conservatives or state loyalists pushing this narrative. It’s people from the same class and lifestyle background as the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protesters, those who just 4 years ago were seen chanting for regime change.

On the train, the conversations are no longer about dissent, they’re about the war. Women were there for each other emotionally. One was unsure whether she should leave the capital. I told her, “The Zionists would not dare to attack civilians again.” she replied, “But they already did.”

“Yes,” I said. “They did, during the first two days. But after Iran’s retaliatory operations, they learned that Iran is not only capable, but determined, not just to restore deterrence, but to dismantle the enemy’s power entirely.” I could see confidence return to her face.

Another woman joined in, agreeing with me. “The attacks were mostly done by Mossad agents,” she added. “Now things are more under control.” I nodded.

In the same train, a street vendor walked through the wagon, smiling. “We continue to live,” she said. “There is no other choice. I need to sell.” That was it, that moment helped me piece together the answer to a question that’s been haunting me: Why are people scared and yet still supportive of Iran’s stance?

For years, especially during the peak of “Woman, Life, Freedom,” we witnessed a profound split between the state and the nation in Iran. During the 2022 World Cup, at the height of the protests, many refused to support the national team, claiming it represented the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people. That moment became a defining line. If you cheered for Iran’s team, you were automatically seen as being against the “revolution” [of Woman, Life, Freedom], a movement that had been hijacked and bankrolled by imperialist agendas.

But now? Why not apply the same logic? Isn’t this just a war between the IRGC and "Israel"? Can’t we say it’s a war between two evils?

No. Not anymore.

Back on the train, I realized how the concrete conditions of everyday life override Western-fueled delusions.** The smear campaigns and misinformation wars can’t hold against direct, lived experience. Why? Because people realized something crucial: their loved ones were attacked by "Israel". This wasn’t a fabricated threat from the Islamic Republic. The enemy of the state is now recognized, viscerally, as the enemy of the people.**

That unification is a turning point: the merging of state and nation.

Reality is defeating BBC Persian. Reality is defeating Iran International. Reality is bitter, but it’s powerful. In order to survive, you must fight back, and who has the means to fight back? The Iranian state. Its military.

After the recent Israeli aggression, Netanyahu posted a video calling on the Iranian people to rise up and “finish what he started.” He believed that by killing commanders, he could encourage the public to weaken the state. But this was a strategic miscalculation. He thought he could become more popular with the people by killing them.

No. He can’t. Reality is winning. The Iranian state is winning.

[–] Moss@hexbear.net 29 points 1 day ago

It seems that despite my fears of the Iranian state being unprepared and naive, the Iranian people are more than brave enough to face the Israeli threat. The ability for humans to be strong in the face of imperialist murderers is astonishing, and the Iranian people really inspire me