this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

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https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 20 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

Smaller nations have been on their own against the USAmerican imperium. There will be tremendous bloodshed, no doubt, it'll be horrific, but Iran will win. There is nothing the United States can do, outside of flattening the entire country with nukes, that will defeat them in the manner that they want. Even the total destruction of almost every building in North Korea did not defeat them.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 2 points 1 hour ago

Even the total destruction of almost every building in North Korea did not defeat them.

  1. They were Marxist-Leninists hardened by years of fighting and enduring Japanese colonization, occupation, and barbarity.

  2. China helped them. Without the PVA it's unlikely we'd have a DPRK. We'd instead have a united occupied Korea on China's border, the remaining elements of communists would have been murdered off by the 70s or before and they would have begun causing problems for China. China's willingness to not blink in the face of the threat of nukes plus big brother USSR looming over them with newly acquired nuclear weapons really helped and probably swayed western planners not to nuke China with the idea that if they did it might push the USSR to use nuclear weapons back in their own next conflict against the west.

  3. The US will absolutely accept a Libya or Syria style situation. The zionists are deranged and hope for a puppet but the reality is so long as the central government is removed and the IRGC scattered to the wind the US can and should count it as a victory for their hegemony and the final piece in their designs for strangling China that they need in place before launching a hot war and all out sanctions and decoupling against them to decide who controls the rest of this century and sets the agenda for the next.

I cannot recall a non-Marxist-Leninist power that resisted a direct war with the US and "won". The Taliban sorta but also sort not because the US held them off for 20 years and successfully occupied the country for as long and really just kind of got tired and decided it wasn't important to hold the country and wanted its resources elsewhere. I also can't say for certain the US didn't decide they wanted the Taliban to stick around in some form and couldn't bring themselves to get rid of a former tool like that for some reason and so hampered their efforts to truly win by trying to have their cake (image of western liberal "democracy" puppet gov) and eat it too (Taliban proxies to use on others elsewhere from say Pakistan).

If the US could keep Iran from being an anti-imperialist power for a mere 10 years that would likely be enough time for their designs on China. The fact is the US tried to turn Afghanistan into a proper western puppet state under the neo-con model of building this perfect western puppet "democracy", if they'd from the start just tried to keep it destabilized by creating other factions like ISIS and so on and playing them and warlords off the Taliban it's quite possible they could keep it in a Libya type failed state situation without one singular government for decades. They also were not able to operate with full effort against the Taliban in Pakistan as though they flew tons of drones and killed lots of them and lots of civilians Pakistan's nuclear status meant they couldn't just straight up invade even if they'd wanted to. Iran has no nuclear armed neighbor its forces can retreat over the border to regroup under, all its neighbors are hostile and in bed with the zionist entity or client states of the US.

Even wins by ML states are few. Korea is kind of a half-win as the DPRK remained but the US occupies the southern half to this day, Vietnam was the only solid, uncontestable win. Every other attempted revolution was crushed usually using coups, fascist strongmen, military juntas, and so on without the need for a direct US war.

Eh sorry but people said the same type of things about Syria and Assad at the start of that. The US doesn't have to defeat Iran right away, they just have to disable the central government, plunge the country into economic and other forms of chaos and keep them in a state of civil or other war for years until society starts to break down. Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria. This isn't just a "greater israel" thing like Lebanon was, Iran is a bonafide regional power and a big partner for China and Russia.

In 2002 Iran's small boats very well would have defeated the US navy in the strait of Hormuz but 2002 didn't have zionist/US/UK hackers who could disable and destroy their logistics, communication, and physical equipment with advanced malware and electronic warfare. It didn't have an Iran that had been under the kinds of sanctions it's been under for decades that started in the 2000 with Bush's "axis of evil" stuff.

I hope Iran pulls out a win but I could see them collapsing so many ways. This is a big, big moment and if they do manage to stand and fend off the US it spells doom for the empire. If the empire wins well China will find itself in a very, very bad position and with it the world.

[–] Cimbazarov@hexbear.net 17 points 11 hours ago

There will be tremendous bloodshed, no doubt, it'll be horrific

This is exactly what im pessimistic about