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The idea is that I'd swap out drives every 5 years or so. If USB A is no longer in use I'd swap out at that point for something newer. Plus the drives would be powered on every year for the update, it's just the point that I stop doing it (too old/hit by bus/etc) that the clock would start ticking.
I do like the M-Disc idea though. Probably a similar price, and more in line with the shelf-stable solution I was looking for.
There are still problems with the hard drive solutions:
Powering up the drives for a short period does not help with error correction when sectors get compromised
As said before it is relatively risky as mechanical parts of HDs do not like to be moved only occasionally. While this problem has become less severe over the last years it still exists.
The updating will include copying from one drive to another - this process is highly suspectable to errors that might be correct with the right file systems - but it's not a guarantee.
And the main problem: You want to achieve a long shelf life - which means you must consider periods of time when you might not be able to maintain the data. What happens when you are not able to do so? And your next of kin are not quite ready to go through your things? To give you an example: You copy your data on the HDs today, maintain the disk's for four years and want to change disk's in 5, which means in 2030. Sadly a weeks before you are able to do so, John,your neighbourhood's stupid school bus driver hits you and you suffer a major traumatic brain injury. Even worse,you don't die right away but suffer for another 5 years in a nursing home before a infection gets you. Your family meanwhile is not quite ready to get through your things as you are still alive, aren't you? (For real,this is the case a lot) After your funeral it takes them another year to finally get through all your things. Now your drives haven't been used for 7 years. Even worse,one of them slips through your next of kind hand and hits the ground hard. How big do you think the chances are the data is still available? I think we both know the answer. While M-Disks are also suspectable to damage there are hardened multi-disk cases that make them pretty much indestructible - nothing any HD case can ever achieve.