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i've been replaying a similar discourse in my mind since it became clear to me that trump would win the election; but my situation is different than yours in that i'm a gay cisgendered neurodivergent who relies on prominently gay sex positive physical spaces to be a happy, productive, & functional member of society.
such places have already been under assault by city and state authorities well before maga became a thing and they get VERY little support from the larger LGBTQIA communities; so when these places are forced to shut down, there's is little to no support from anyone to defend them. the end result is a locality with deeply sanitized gay spaces that are socially acceptable to cis-gendered neurotypical straight people, and those spaces end up becoming only capable of servicing gay mainstream clientele and usually have more straight patrons than gay ones. (ie austin, texas; phoenix, arizona, san jose, california; etc.).
to make matters worse: it doesn't matter that these places are located in "safe for now" areas since places like San Francisco, New York, or Chicago have been perpetrating these shutdowns at the same rate as non-safe areas like Texas, or Mississippi, or Georgia.
I fully expect for all such spaces in this country will be shutdown as a result of the american fascists that are now in control of our federal government as well as by the blue-maga governors/mayors where the last few remaining spaces still exist; as they have been doing since the 1980's.
the place i live in now has several such spaces and i've decided that; once the first of these spaces is forced to shutdown here; it will be my first danger warning sign and that i must start the emigration process before the rest are shut down and i end up enduring the psychological hell that i experienced in austin.
like yours; my neurotypical gay friends alike don't see the danger that's coming our way and their exit strategy is to go to canada. they don't seem to understand this new brand of conservatism is much more malleable than other conservative pushes in the past and this malleability allows it to spread beyond the united states and into the rest of the anglosphere. It's so effective that it has also spread into the other language spheres are closest aligned to the anglosphere (eg german, french, italian, polish, etc.). so it's only a matter for time for canada to likewise be caught up in it and they're about to take thier first step with Pierre Poilievre in their next election; france & germany will also join where italy & poland have already gone.
i'm hoping that the cultural differences and historical animosities between the anglosphere hegemony and latin america are enough to stymie the same conservative influence that has befallen most of europe & north america so far; because that's my exit strategy. i have legal entitlements there that guarantee my emigration goals; unlike the 10 year wait and likely rejection from canada under a conservative government. most importantly: they have a sliver of the sex positive spaces that i require to be happy and i hope that the american fascists are unable to destabilize latin american in the future as they had done in the past.
Straight cisgender non(?)-neurotypical from Latin America here. I'm afraid to tell you that the conservative influence is already here, since our elites (which matters in our political and economical system) are nothing but american puppets. Not so long ago Bolsonaro was president here in Brazil and I wouldn't count that we're free from him or his thugs. Argentina has already fallen. Chile might be the next on queue.
Where I would go in your situation: 1) Mexico (though I wouldn't be surprised if the irritating orange militarly intervened in the country); 2) Uruguay (safe and stable, but no one knows about tomorrow); 3) Costa Rica and Panama (though Panama might be the target of an invasion too); 4) Colombia (might be at risk in the near future); 5) Cuba (yes, Cuba). Brazil and Chile are OK but at risk. I'd avoid the rest.
However, the thing to consider is that now fascism is internationalist. We've come to a historical moment where these guys are no longer country-bound and are able to cooperate in order to grab power in their hands, regardless of which side of the border they are. Sure, they will try to kill each other, but not after they get rid of the undesirable. Moving to a safer country will give you about 5 years of peace, and then what? If that country falls to a fascist crony, where will you go? Will it even be do-able living a life where you'll have to move abroad at the slightest risk?
Look, political activism, most specifically that of the radical nature (I'm not even talking about revolutionary action) is something that, of course, is not for everyone. People have to have the health to take it every single day. As for myself, the option for me for sure wasn't moving. Political action is all that is left (pun intended). But that's me.
That's just some food for thought I'm giving you and OP, though. Whichever you people choose, try to do it with peace of mind as your ultimate goal.
i chose latin american because it's less willing to tow the global north's fascism trend than canada is, as evidenced by popular politicians like sheinbuam or maduro couching socialist changes within their constitution; effectively making their countries as fascist unfriendly as possible.
the central america countries are my most likely bets since that's where my legal entitlements exist and i'm fully aware that they each have elements of american conservatism. what's different about their conservatives is that they are that they're not empowered to be full fledged fascists like the americans et al. are; the global north's brand of fascism is unpalatable to most in latin america because of it's colonialist/zionist influence; and countries like mexico have pushed the envelope towards a socialist posture further than any of their predecessors have ever done in the past, giving them the best possible chance there is to survive american military interventions.
i already know from experience that cuba, chile, uraguay, and colombia are nonstarters because they don't have the physical places i require. however, they do atleast have something somewhat similar but they're expensive, unsustainable, and/or predatory; but they could nevertheless become a second option for me if needed it. brazil is also a non-starter for me also since i don't speak the language and i have zero experience with it. (i also know from experience that they're usually unable to understand my spanish because of my accent and the same is true in reverse).
i tried activism in my youth and learned the hard way that american's dgaf and for a myriad of reasons; some of them being justifiable. that experience has taught me that i'm better off leaving it to the people who can withstand much more than i can due to their lack of vulnerabilities like mine and others.