I mostly agree, except for this

If the Dreamcast had started development instead of the Saturn, and released even 2 years after the Saturns release date in 1996, the console would have fared significantly better.

You're effectively saying that development of the Dreamcast should've begun before the tech for it even existed. The Saturn's development began back in 1992, after the release of the Model 1, when 3D graphics were a wild dream for home consumers. The Sega Model 3, which served as a basis for the Dreamcast, saw its first arcade release in 1996. M3 was super powerful, but in 1996 it'd also be prohibitively expensive for any home consumer to afford. The Dreamcast that the world saw in 1998/1999 was literally impossible to achieve back in 1996, the "best" thing would've been something like a Saturn 2.5 which maaayyybeee could've run Model 3 games at significantly lower quality.